Another turn in the American pivot

Events, however, have intervened. With the domestic debacle of the American government shutdown, the President’s trip to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Bali, and the East Asia Summit in Brunei has been cancelled. This will not be without costs.

Obama’s pivot, after all, primarily gave a political reassurance that US commitment remains, despite the crisis and possible impact on the coffers. 

The US government shutdown starkly reveals divisive and dysfunctional Beltway politics. If they can furlough jobs, cease government services and risk a downgrade in the country’s credit rating, will American politicians be consistent about faraway Asia?

There is also Syria to show how the Middle East soaks up American time and attention. Secretary of State John Kerry is wading into Middle East issues – not only Syria but also Iran and Israel-Palestine. 

A subtext has emerged to question if the US’s pivot will be sustained in President Obama’s second term. And even if sustained, American engagement may no longer be as welcome. 

Take the administration’s centrepiece for trade and economic ties, the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement. Over the past months, American negotiators have pushed hard for Asians to cough up “deliverables” that suit US interests. Resistance has grown, rather than any sense of partnership. 

This is a sharp contrast to China, which has not backed down on claims in the South China Sea, but nevertheless has adjusted its diplomacy. With Foreign Minister Wang Yi smiling benignly, Beijing is calmly laying down a 10-year strategy for engagement. 

Alongside the US$500 million China-Asean Maritime Fund and $50 billion Asian Infrastructure Fund, an upgrade to the China-Asean Free Trade Agreement seems likely, with new Chinese concessions to benefit its Southeast Asian neighbours.  

Malaysia, despite having overlapping claims with China to parts of the South China Sea, will roll out the red carpet for President Xi. His three-day state visit this week is expected to usher in a new era in ties between the two countries. This makes a sharp contrast to President Obama’s decision to cancel, especially as no incumbent US President has been to Malaysia since Lyndon B Johnson during the Vietnam War. 

The Philippines, another visit that has been cancelled, is in quite a different situation. The Aquino administration has challenged the Chinese claims, both at sea and through international arbitration. Beijing, in response, seems to be systematically isolating the Philippines. The planned visit by President Aquino to the Asean-China trade expo – ironically a flagship friendship event – was unceremoniously upended just last month. 

The lesson is clear to other Asians who recall the old Chinese adage to, “kill the chicken to scare the monkeys”. 

Because of this, it is Manila that will most miss Obama. The two countries are already looking to an agreement for more troop visits, and discussing the development of a mini-Subic Bay to host the American navy, proximate to maritime areas in dispute.   

This might be delayed by the US president’s cancellation. But it will not be derailed. Indeed, there is some danger that America may, intentionally or otherwise, overcompensate with statements that the Chinese might find provocative. 

If President Obama had come to Asia, there would have been opportunities to salvage matters somewhat. He could have met with Russian President Putin on the sidelines of the Apec Summit, as a next step in coming to agreement over Syria. Not all things would be resolved, but getting on Air Force One even for a shorter visit would have shown US commitment. Asian questions about the sustainability of the American pivot will now find their own answers.

 

Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and the author of “Asia Alone: The Dangerous Post-Crisis Divide from America”.