A sound peace process will draw viable participants

Although the chances of coming up with a sound exit strategy from Syria’s bloody civil war that has claimed more than 100,000 lives, is very slim, pressure is nevertheless mounting on the Syrian-fractured opposition to take part in the upcoming talks. 

According to the Syrian government, the talks are scheduled for November 23-24 and will be chaired by UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon. 

However, the problem with the upcoming talks is that the opposition is so divided and disunited, one has to question who actually represents the Syrian opposition?

A new aid package from the international community is being considered, but there is no guarantee the money will be enough for the various factions to overcome their differences and find a common ground. 

One dilemma for the opposition coalition is the question of what role, if any, President Bashar al-Assad will play, if and when the opposition takes power in Syria. 

The talks are necessary because all sides, the government and the opposition, have been unable to break the deadlock – both politically and militarily speaking. It’s a long shot if one thinks an exit can be found, but, nevertheless, it’s worth a try.

The talks received a big boost after last month’s US-Russia deal to disarm Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal. With the deal, the threat of US air strikes has been removed – a breath of fresh air for the Assad regime. 

The problem with the opposition is that many see the upcoming meeting in Geneva as a sham, as it would give more time to Assad and his Iranian backers to regroup. 

For the West, including Turkey – the main backers of the Syrian opposition – there is a dilemma: 

The growing number of al-Qaeda-affiliated groups fighting on the ground alongside the opposition forces. 

In a way, this plays into Assad’s hand – “do you want us, or do you want the al-Qaeda guys”, he seems to be asking the world. 

This past week Turkey shelled the rebel positions under the control of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamists along the Syrian border. With the US ensuring that Damascus has more breathing space during the ongoing chemical-weapons inspections, Turkey is running out of cards to play. Pounding the Islamist bases is perhaps a way of letting the world know that Turkey is taking a different line on the evolving Syrian conflict. 

Britain’s foreign secretary William Hague stated recently that there could be no “peaceful and political settlement in Syria without the participation of the moderate opposition.” 

Like others, he is concerned with the possibility that the Islamists will turn their guns on Western backers of the opposition if and when the Assad regime is removed.

Indeed, it goes without saying that a representative opposition is needed, if a viable resolution between the two warring parties is to find a common ground. 

But instead of looking for credible participants, Western backers should think more about developing a credible political process. If the process is coherent and appealing enough, it will produce viable representatives. 

And despite all of its problems, the opposition coalition needs first and foremost to focus on developing a realistic strategy for ending the war. They should start with negotiation parameters.