Egyptian strife looks set to continue

Egyptian prosecutors have ordered the arrest of four police officers in connection with the deaths in custody of 37 Muslim Brotherhood members two months ago. The victims were seized on the streets of Cairo, where they were demonstrating against the military for ousting President Mohamed Morsi in a coup in July. More than 1,000 people have died in street battles between security forces and supporters of the ousted government, and 2,000 have been detained.

Making matters worse is the fact that the clashes are turning into a feud between various religious and ethnic groups. Just days ago a Coptic Christian wedding was fired upon in a drive-by shooting with automatic weapons. The country is drifting toward civil war, the Muslim Brotherhood leaders have said.

Initially the military-installed government dismissed condemnation of the deaths of the 37 demonstrators, who died while being transported to prison. The government blamed the deaths on fighting that supposedly broke out in the vehicle. However a preliminary investigation found that the victims suffocated to death after tear gas was fired into the packed vehicle. The four police officers have been detained pending further investigation. 

The case is being closely watched, and many observers are hoping it will lead to greater scrutiny of the interim government’s dealings with the Muslim Brotherhood. 

Human Rights Watch has pointed out that, while the legal charges against the four officers are an important first step, more accountability is needed. 

For too long the people of Egypt have suffered under this culture of impunity. The charges against the police are, sadly, just an exception to the rule, not a major shift. The case was just too clear-cut for the government to ignore it, even though it tried to dismiss it from the start. 

To pressure the military to restore democracy, the US has cut most of its $1.5 billion in aid that traditionally goes to the Egyptian armed forces. But Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are stepping in with bigger donations, promising $12 billion, thus rendering America’s aid meaningless – and that’s the only card Washington has to play in Egypt. 

Being strict, conservative Muslim countries, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States would be expected to act as natural allies of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. But this is not about religious affiliation and ideology. It’s about alliances. With the exception of Qatar, all of the oil-rich, family-run Gulf States are keeping Egypt alive because they cannot tolerate a democratically elected Islamist government. The prospect of democracy spreading in the region makes these ruling families nervous, analysts say.

Currently 2,000 Muslim Brotherhood members are behind bars, including Morsi, and they will be charged with various crimes, such as inciting violence.

Egypt’s economy is a shambles and there is no talk of democratic reform, only a harsher response to the protesters.  Any hope for reconciliation was tossed out the window last August when government troops shot and killed nearly 1,000 demonstrators in their effort to disperse sprawling protest camps. 

The generals had the audacity to react angrily to international criticism. If that’s their attitude, then the bloodshed in Egypt will continue for a long time to come.