Is the government pushing its luck too far?

Ongoing moves by politicians in the ruling Pheu Thai Party have many people puzzled. Government representatives on the House committee vetting the amnesty bill are pushing for a blanket amnesty for all those involved in the political conflict. That includes those responsible for the deaths of 91 people killed during the unrest of 2010 and politicians accused or convicted of corruption or abuse of power after the coup of 2006.

The original bill proposed by Pheu Thai MPs and red-shirt leader Worachai Hema offered amnesty only to ordinary protesters, but the ruling party on Tuesday resolved to support the revised version. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is adamant that the amnesty bill is a matter for Parliament and has nothing to do with her government, but all of the MPs who back the bill are from the ruling party, and Pheu Thai has given its stamp of approval to the revision.

These moves have come amid widespread scepticism over hidden motives and allegations. It would appear that the blanket amnesty is aimed at benefiting ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Political Office Holders sentenced Thaksin to two years in jail for abuse of power. In addition, Bt46 billion of his assets – deemed to have been earned unfairly while he was in power – were seized. 

Those two cases against Thaksin, resulting in the verdicts in 2008 and 2010, stemmed from investigations by the Assets Examination Committee, which was set up after the 2006 coup that brought down Thaksin’s government. Thaksin fled the country shortly before the verdict in the first case was read in October 2008 and has lived in self-exile overseas ever since. The ruling in the second case, in February 2010, was read in the absence of the ex-premier.

There must be good reasons for these Pheu Thai politicians to push for a blanket amnesty. Some of them have said they want Thaksin, who is referred to as “the big boss” by many in the ruling party, to return to Thailand a free man. However, their move has led to opposition from many groups, including the New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) and even some factions of the red-shirt movement that is Pheu Thai’s main pillar of support. 

During 10 weeks of unrest and subsequent riots in 2010, in addition to protesters, dozens of others were also killed, including soldiers, policemen, residents, passers-by and foreign journalists. HRW has called for justice for the families of the dead protesters and for those responsible to be punished.

The ongoing push for a blanket amnesty is likely to lead to a new round of conflict and possibly violence. It’s a risk that could be avoided if the politicians actually showed more care for the interests of ordinary protesters and the country, as they claim to do. 

Groups opposing a blanket amnesty are demonstrating in Bangkok. Leading figures in the opposition Democrat Party have called a national rally starting today, when the House of Representatives begins its second reading of the amnesty bill.

The government is confident regardless, given its majority in Parliament and the weak opposition. However, many governments in the past made the mistake of underestimating protesters in the streets. When thousands of people rally to a cause, the situation can easily slip beyond the control of those in power.