As the pressure rises, something's got to give

Suthep Thaugsuban has promised victory for protesters occupying the area around Democracy Monument. He says that if one million people gather in Rajdamnoen Avenue on Sunday, civil servants will stage a walkout to join the anti-government rally, and that would bring an end to the Thaksin regime.

The Democrat Party secretary-general has joined eight other hardcore Democrats in giving up his parliamentary seat to battle the Shinawatra administration. Starting as a protest against the amnesty bill, the Suthep-led rally has attracted tens of thousands people. The “silent majority” has also to come out onto the streets to block the attempted whitewash of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s criminal record and prevent him returning to power. Two other protest groups – Santi Asoke’s Dharma Army and the Students and People Network for Thailand’s Reform – are also out in force on Rajdamnoen Avenue. In spite of their political differences, the protest groups share a common objective to oust the Yingluck government and the shadowy Thaksin. The Rajdamoen occupation stretches from Kok Wua Intersection near the famous Khao San Road to Makkhawan Bridge in front of the UN Building. It seems clear that the protesters won’t quit the area until they have succeeded in ousting the government of Yingluck Shinawatra.

Prime Minister Yingluck and her supporters have only themselves to blame for igniting a political crisis that has breathed new life into the anti-government protests. Government MPs, whose majority made them arrogant, passed the blanket-amnesty bill against the will of the public and attempted to rewrite the Constitution to create an all-elected Senate. Their political misjudgement has provided fresh ammunition for protesters, who have launched a series of street demonstrations to oust the government. 

The momentum seems to have turned against the Yingluck administration. The street demonstrations have struck a chord with the public. The government-controlled Senate did a quick U-turn to vote down the amnesty bill, but that did little to dissipate public anger against the administration’s bullying tactics. The trust of the people in their leaders has evaporated.

The political battle turned ugly when House Speaker Somsak Kiatsuranand joined Pheu Thai MPs in discrediting the power of the Constitutional Court ahead of its ruling on the charter amendment. They argued that Parliament has the right to change the Constitution and that the Constitutional Court has no power over Parliament. Strangely enough, the House Speaker and his backers issued no protest over the World Court’s ruling last week against Thailand’s ownership of the Preah Vihear Temple.

On Wednesday the Constitutional Court had the final word, striking down the charter amendment for an all-elected Senate. As a result, the 312 lawmakers who voted for the amendment could, in theory, now be subject to legal action for violating the Constitution.

Suthep has garnered more than 120,000 signatures to oust the 312 lawmakers. On Wednesday, he made his way to the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to submit the signatures and start the process. If the case has merit, the NACC could suspend the parliamentarians, which would deal the government a crippling blow in ripping away its parliamentary majority. This would usher in a full-blown political crisis.

Undaunted, the government-controlled Senate earlier this week passed the controversial Bt2-trillion loan bill for mega-infrastructure projects, which had already been passed by the House of Representatives. It would empower the Finance Ministry to borrow money without being subject to any budget scrutiny. This bill will face an uphill battle at the Constitutional Court.

It is evident that Thai politics is facing a gridlock. The crisis will deepen because the Yingluck government refuses to budge an inch. The red shirts rallied on Tuesday and Wednesday at Rajamangala Stadium to support the government. They agreed to end the costly demonstration after the Constitutional Court ruling did not dissolve the Pheu Thai Party.

Highly volatile times lie ahead. The movement to occupy Rajdamnoen now hopes to gather one million protesters on Sunday to ratchet up pressure for Yingluck to resign. The government will fight back. Yingluck retains the backing of the police and army chief General Prayuth Chan-Ocha. But other elements of the military are watching the developing situation with growing concern. We might now see a power-play, exercised by both sides discreetly behind the scenes, to determine the decisive outcome of this political deadlock.