A ray of hope for the Middle East

In the final analysis, the effort to keep the deal with Iran over its nuclear programme on the right course is something that has to be managed.

Trust, as in any other realm of life, will take time, especially when we are dealing with two sides whose views are so radically different. 

The threat from the conservatives in Iran and the US has now subsided, but this doesn’t mean they are out of the picture entirely. A comeback for “hawks” will not be difficult. Just give them a reason and they will have no qualms about upsetting the fragile accord. 

Therefore it is important that all stakeholders manage this delicate relationship with reason and the utmost sensitivity. 

Regarding Israel, the key US ally in the region, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unhappiness with the breakthrough must be complete, since the interim deal failed to gain the dismantling of a single uranium-enriching centrifuge. Moreover, there is nothing to stop Iran from switching the centrifuges on again in the future.

Just as frustrating for Netanyahu is the fact that the deal has limited Israel’s military options against Iran.

But demanding that Iran dismantle its centrifuges would have killed the dialogue before it even started. US Secretary of State John Kerry was correct in refusing to make such demands and instead taking those concessions from Tehran that the “UN P5-plus-1” negotiating team could get at this point in time, while maintaining good will for future deals on other issues. 

Iran is also thinking about long-term goals. It has only achieved a relatively small-scale lifting of Western sanctions with this arrangement. As such, we can be sure that Tehran, too, will be asking for something more in the coming months.

The international community, meanwhile, needs to take into consideration the situation facing the new government of President Hassan Rouhani. Pressure will come not just from the citizens who voted him in to office but also from among the elderly clerics who form the highest decision-making body in the country. 

The international community has to be realistic and can’t pretend that Rouhani can deliver everything on his own. Politics in Iran, like anywhere else, is rooted in local power games.

At best, the deal worked out in Geneva last weekend represents a down payment for a long-term accord that should change the face of global politics and Middle East security arrangements. 

Besides providing breathing space for Iran’s leadership – perhaps enabling the people, the president and the ruling clerics to iron out their differences – Sunday’s deal is also an opportunity for the international community to test the sincerity of the Iranian government. 

The same logic should be extended the Gulf State nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, which has long been concerned with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The Sunni-led Saudis see the prospect of a nuclear-armed Shi’ite Iran as a potential game-changer in the region’s delicate balance of power. 

Now is the time to jettison old notions of maintaining prominence in the region and instead embrace the possibility of a new and more peaceful future. 

The interim nuclear deal with Iran holds the promise of bigger and better things. It could, for example, herald the end of the civil war in Syria, where Tehran is backing a broken government. It could also lead to Lebanon gaining freedom from the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia currently tearing that country apart.