For Pheu Thai, replacing Yingluck is not an option

If not Yingluck Shinawatra, then who? This is the question haunting the Pheu Thai Party right now. From being a heroine ushered onto centre stage in a highly romanticised manner, Yingluck has seen her popularity plunge as fast as it initially skyrocketed. The amnesty push, according to a host of non-partisan commentators, was a political blunder on a scale rarely seen. Her innocent and conciliatory image had shielded her from accusations she was her older brother’s “puppet”, but the scandalous rush to pass a bill that would absolve him (even albeit along with his political enemies) has stripped her of that immunity.

Polls indicate that few people believed Yingluck when she vowed to bury the amnesty agenda. Although some protesters have returned home, the dents to her image could turn out to be permanent. A juxtaposition of incidents has made it difficult to take her pledge seriously, meaning she’s got a lot more to do to convince the growing number of doubters. The just-ended censure debate did not help that cause.

First came the leaked audio clip in which Thaksin discussed a legislative and executive plan to bring him home. Then an amnesty bill that had not originally included him was altered to do so. Last but not least, the Pheu Thai-dominated House of Representatives rammed the revamped bill through after just one day of debate – or opposition protest, to be exact. Through all of this, Yingluck tried to stay aloof. She began by insisting that amnesty had nothing to do with the government, only to take a dramatic and questionable U-turn by finally saying the government was “withdrawing” the bill.

If Yingluck is a “puppet”, she has not done a good job in the role. If she is not a puppet, she is bad at proving so. Being Thaksin’s sister has made her task difficult, of course. But that doesn’t mean a bill advocated by her party and paving the way for him to return home a free man had to be rushed through Parliament at an hour when much of Thailand was sleeping.

While Yingluck’s political “innocence” was winning hearts, attacks ricocheted off her without fail. Now, scepticism has eaten into her image and the previously harmless ridicule by rivals is taking a bigger and bigger toll. She is politically bruised and obviously anxious, prompting speculation that her brother might have to prop somebody else up in her place.

The question is who. The other influential Shinawatra sibling, Yaowapa Wongsawat, has always been mentioned as a replacement candidate, but switching from Yingluck to her would be a drastic change. Yaowapa is far more confrontational, and certainly doesn’t command as much public adoration as the incumbent.

Will Somchai Wongsawat, Yaowapa’s husband and a former prime minister, be brought back? Though he doesn’t seem confrontational, his active involvement with the red shirts would certainly bring him more torrid times as premier. Suvarnabhumi Airport was taken over by protesters while he was at the country’s helm in late 2008 – and that was at a time when Thai politics was not nearly as complex or super-heated.

Any other candidate deemed closely associated with the Shinawatras would face big trouble. Giving the highest executive post to an ally of Pheu Thai is also unthinkable. The late Samak Sundaravej was as far as Thaksin would go when it came to a non-Shinawatra at the country’s helm. It’s unimaginable for the prime minister’s post to be handed on a plate to, say, Banharn Silapa-archa.

The national impasse seems to have brought Pheu Thai to a major impasse of its own. Can Yingluck continue? That’s a big question, but the bigger ones are “If not House dissolution, then what?” and “If not her, then who?”