Cabinet and NCPO: Will the twain ever meet?

Reporter: Will you approve the extension of term for the Army commander-in-chief, General?

PM Prayuth: That issue hasn’t been decided upon yet.

Reporter: Why, sir?

PM Prayuth: Well, I will have to consult the head of the National Council for Peace and Order first.

It would be even more amusing if General Prayuth somehow decides to also become defence minister in the new Cabinet, of course.

But then, if the Army chief retires on October 1, as is the popular expectation now, the person who becomes defence minister won’t be the same one as the Army chief. But still, the prime minister, the NCPO chief and the defence minister would be General Prayuth. But then, he might decide to ask one of the senior generals to take over the defence portfolio to avoid being seen to be concentrating too much power in one person – or a group of military officers.

That isn’t going to be an easy task, though. The Cabinet that Prayuth heads is expected to feature a heavy presence of generals taking up crucial posts. That possibly means that many senior military men holding NCPO posts may double as Cabinet members as well.

What’s more, it has emerged that he may appoint seven more people to the current eight-member NCPO, turning it into a “Super Cabinet”.

The obvious question is: Who supervises whom in this power structure? The answer is simple: the NCPO is placed one step above the Cabinet.

The other question is: How will the NCPO work with the Cabinet? This isn’t quite clear, although it is officially stated in the interim Constitution that the NCPO will handle “security issues” while the Cabinet runs the rest of the nation’s business.

But there are murky areas that could cause confusion when the term “security” needs a clear definition. What happens if the controversial energy issue is considered a “security question”? And if the NCPO considers “populist policy” a security threat, would the Cabinet have to seek prior approval from the NCPO before reaching a decision of its own?

But when you have the same person heading both the NCPO and the Cabinet, the interpretation may not that be too complicated – except that if things really get terribly confusing, and the PM gets his marching orders from the NCPO head, the question that would inevitably arise is: Why bother to have a Cabinet at all?

There have been suggestions that Prayuth could hold joint sessions between the Cabinet and the NCPO to avoid an overlap of work and misunderstanding of roles. Cooperation is key if things are to proceed as planned – and the list of “critical issues” 

waiting to be addressed is long and daunting.

But it is a tricky combination. If the NCPO’s board is expanded from eight to 15 and a good number of NCPO members hold Cabinet posts concurrently, the obvious impression would be that the military is running both the NCPO and the Cabinet. This clearly isn’t a healthy perception for a leader who has laid down a roadmap for “full democracy” within 15 months and has promoted reform as a major platform.

Economic issues are among the top priorities in the public’s mind – and many of the controversial issues have been assigned to NCPO executives. Will the professionals on the civilian side of the Council of Ministers be given sufficient respect and authority to get things done?

How will the “dual-track administration” communicate with those who don’t agree with how things are run in certain ministries and how policies on major issues are decided upon?

That will most probably determine whether the transition from Phase I to Phase II can be rated a success – or a failure.