Lesson from America: When a 'JV' team turned into an NBA squad

And killers they are. They have murdered their way, sparing neither women nor children, across northern Iraq and Syria, buried men alive and beheaded American journalists and a British aid worker. There is no telling when they will stop, or be stopped, even with Obama’s promised counter-terrorism bombing campaign, aided by his potent drones. His plan – which has been derided by critics as a move to turn US air power into an Iraqi Air Force – requires that Baghdad set up a more inclusive government.
Obama’s tough and passionate remarks last week on America’s obligation to lead the world against ISIS could not be in starker contrast with his earlier statements on the Islamist group.
On January 20, the president dismissed the al-Qaeda-linked militants in Iraq and Syria as akin to to “jayvee” or junior varsity basketball players, downplaying their threat by comparing them with a junior high school team.
“If a jayvee team puts on Lakers uniforms that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant,” he said.
The world now knows that Obama’s “jayvee team” is in fact bigger and badder than the mighty NBA top squad, and they didn’t even need to don Lakers uniforms or Kobe Bryant jerseys.
How could the head of the free world’s leading nation be so blindsided?
There may have be a combination of factors that led to such the underestimation. And history contains no shortage of failures by leaders to perceive the gravity of an event or entity, leading to perilous outcomes.
ISIS was initially an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Iraq. It then formed a Syrian coalition of groups opposed to President Bashir al-Assad, and sent its fighters there. It is funded to the tune of billions of dollars by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE and armed with weapons by the world’s great powers, including the United States, France, UK and Germany. ISIS found recruits among drug addicts in Turkey and people with criminal records from the West, who would feel empowered by the status and recognition membership of the group afforded. When ISIS entered Iraq, it moved into mostly Sunni areas. The existing security forces in those areas were fed up with the policies of Nouri al-Maliki, who had been installed by the West as prime minister of Iraq. ISIS took control of these territories without a fight and inherited enormous amounts of weapons and air power from the disgruntled Iraqi security forces. Initially, ISIS could barely muster 3,000 fighters, but an effective recruitment drive plus the defection of Iraqi servicemen, either in protest against Maliki or out of the fear for their lives, turned this “jayvee” team into a formidable NBA-like machine. The war with ISIS into which Washington has been dragged could prove to be another battle that the US cannot win.
In Thailand, in 2004, our then prime minister dismissed the Southern armed conflict as the work of “sparrows”, or petty thieves that could be swatted within days. Today, those sparrows have proven potent scavengers and earned the status of an international armed movement deserving of a seat at peace negotiations that include not only the Thai government but also that of our neighbour Malaysia.
Immediately after the self-imposed exile in 2008 of our former prime minister, the red-shirt movement began mobilising in earnest. Red-shirt radio stations spewed a constant stream of hatred and distortions to villagers and locals who had no means to verify the information. The result was the echoed spouting of red-shirt supporters and sympathisers, red-shirt villages, and a growing discontent and sadly, hatred, among the grassroots. Unfortunately, these subversive activities and propaganda were left unchecked for years. Funds kept flowing into the movement’s leaders’ hands, bringing recognition and perks like the “red-shirt elite cards”. The money was used in part to fan the fires of hatred. As a result, the cancer of polarisation in our society grew in leaps and bounds.
An ocean away, the Scots are today voting on whether to stay in the UK or become an independent country. Initial polls suggested that less than 20 per cent of Scots supported independence, but that support has grown dramatically to the point where secession may become a reality. The very real possibility of Scotland splitting from the UK is now weighing heavily on the minds of European leaders, as it would have many and far-reaching ramifications for the EU.
The Thai folktale of a drip of honey that eventually leads to the catastrophe of civil war should be heeded in this case. Every war – from the Crusades to the two World Wars to the war in Iraq – got started with insignificant factors and incidents that were allowed to grow into an unstoppable train of events that led to massive tragedy. From history, can we learn the danger of myopic, misplaced confidence and poor information that fuel a leader’s misperception and bad judgement on the severity of a situation?
During the Zhou Dynasty (1046-256 BC), Chinese thinker Lao Tzu cautioned leaders on the need to be mindful: “There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.”