Obama needs to do a deal with Iran
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Tehran could help the us get better outcomes in syria, if washington was prepared to do that
Iran and the United States do not see eye to eye on many things. But if US President Barack Obama wants to destroy the Islamic State, the radical forces that control a large swath of Iraq and Syria, he is going to have to learn to work with Tehran.
And if the two countries could pull this off, it would be a strategic game changer for the entire region.
The United States has some influence with the Iraqi government. But Iran and Iraq are natural allies because of the long running sport from Tehran to the Shiite religious groups that were against Saddam Hussein’s regime.
When the United States was working to remove Nouri al-Maliki from his post as the head of the Iraqi government, Iran provided the needed help to make it happen.
In this respect, the United States might have to seek help from Iran in its attempt to make Iraq more inclusive, which means more Sunni and Kurdish representation in the government.
Being included in the Iraqi government is important for immediate and long-term stability for the country.
At this point in time, an air war is well on the way with the US-led air forces pounding Islamic State positions on the ground. Given the West’s military capability, victory seems like a done deal.
But if history tells us anything it is that what follows the air war is the hard part. Door to door, village to village gunfights often marked the aftermath of an air campaign. Securing the land often required compromises and power-sharing negotiation between the incoming forces and the local tribes and sects.
In Iraq, for example, in spite of six weeks of airstrikes against IS, the reality on ground has not changed much.
IS units are still not budging, mainly because local tribesmen will not join the US-led operation and take actions against them.
The challenge, it seems, is how to make the Sunnis feel represented in the Baghdad government. But whether that is enough to get them off the sideline and taking direct action is a major question.
Washington is trying to do a miracle in Syria.
The US-led campaign is trying to destroy the IS while at the same time not strengthen their principle rival, the Bashar al-Assad government. Because as the IS loses territory, it will not be the anti-Bashar forces that put up the flagpoles. It will be the Bashar government’s forces.
One option is to work out a deal with Syria. Again, this goes back to Iran, one of Syria’s closest allies who can act as the go-between and a stabilising force.
At the recent summit at the United Nations, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani made it clear that future cooperation with Iran will depend on the outcome of the nuclear deal that basically centred on the capacity of Iran’s uranium-enrichment and which sanctions should be lifted and in what order.
While it is not hard to see the self-serving nature of Rouhani’s argument and demands, nevertheless, he does have a point about how the presence of the West has made things worse as it tries to install instant democracy without first questioning the foundation for such a concept.
