Thai diplomacy of 'first come, first serve'

That explains why some countries have been comfortable in re-engaging Thailand openly, while others

cite democratic principles and are reluctant to normalise relations with Thailand. In the latter group, the US and European Union stand out.

As Thai-US relations enter their 183rd year, these ties are still under-utilised and non-strategised. Both sides have to take the blame for allowing their alliance to slip to the edge of the precipice. For the Thai side, the reasons are many and familiar, including - continued domestic turmoil for nearly a decade, lack of regional leadership, too close a 

relationship with China, to name just a few. For the US, the reason is all quite simple —Thailand is no longer as important as it believes.

Following the coup, there have not been any substantive Thai-US exchanges. Financial aid was severed and exchanges of senior official visits — both military and civilian — were not permitted. However, in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly at the end of September, Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Sihasak Phuangketkoew managed to hold talks with Daniel Russel, US Assistant State Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. They discussed ways to move ahead by overcoming the “grey areas” that have frozen their relations.

The two countries have identified some non-sensitive issues involving cooperation in stemming human trafficking, strengthening joint research on contagious diseases - including Ebola, and working closer on counter measures against extremists. Indeed, the ball is in the US’s court -  Washington can take up any initiative as Bangkok is open to all avenues.

At the Asean ministerial meeting in New York, Thailand joined Asean in backing international support to fight against Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria, which the US is leading and urging all friends to form a coalition of the willing. Washington has asked Bangkok to cooperate in its efforts. In previous Middle East-related crises, the country played a pivotal role providing logistic support for the US air forces.

Discreetly, the two countries are currently working on a collaborative effort to utilise the U-Tapao airbase for future cooperation related to humanitarian and disaster assistance. Early this year, Thailand was disappointed by the US decision to scrap Thailand and consider Singapore as the location of a US-led regional centre for humanitarian and disaster management.

Mutual serious concerns were expressed if Thai-US ties should remain in a state of “paralysis”, other countries could take advantage by intensifying and diversifying relations, thus negating traditional ties. More than officials would like to admit, Thailand has lost it premier place in the US military-strategic pivot toward Asia. In the long run, the climate could also lead to new cooperative frameworks and structures that exclude the US and EU.

That helped explain why Japan, the US’s closest ally in the region, recently broke ranks with America and the EU. Japan went ahead with an invitation for General Prayut to visit Tokyo as soon as Vice Foreign Minister Minoru Kiuchi called on him at Government House early this month. He became the first high foreign leader to make official contact with Thailand. Japan has shown its enthusiasm by offering three optional dates to facilitate the proposed visit.

Taking a sustained rigid stand against Thailand, Japan realised, would backfire on its national interest in the long haul, especially by rupturing the regional and global production chain established by Japan over the past four decades. Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan is more pragmatic and strategic in its approach to Thailand and the region, which has become an area of rivalry with China.

At the moment, the EU is also caught in a bind because of its collective positions on Thailand. The Thai-EU free trade agreement, which was near completion, was halted after the coup. Now, both sides are finding ways to jump- start their relations.

By contrast, China and South Korea benefitted the most from Thailand’s post-coup era. In the absence of much needed foreign 

support during the first week following the coup, the two embassies 

continued to engage with the new Thai power wielders - and it paid off. Their “business as usual” approach has not only saved their ongoing 

huge infrastructure projects but deepened their friendship and trust level with Thailand.

The so-called “first come, first served” diplomacy has already achieved a useful purpose by breaking international isolation and increasing contact between the military leaders and foreign dignitaries. The next move will depend on Prayut’s leadership quality and his rapport with the international 

community.

General Prayut is attending the Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Milan later this week. His first exposure to the 28 European leaders will serve as an indicator how well his government has been accepted by the Western democracies. Although the EU has not yet softened its stand on Thailand, especially on the restriction of freedom of expression and assembly, individual EU members have expressed the interest to hold bilateral talks with Prayut on the sideline of ASEM. The numbers are expected to increase as the summit draws near.

However, the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders Meeting in Beijing (November 9-10) and the Asean Summit and East Asia Summit in Nay Pyi Taw (November 12-13 ) could be his litmus test.  His tete-a-tetes with the world’s most powerful leaders and his counterparts from Asean could increase or undermine his government’s claims of legitimacy and decency.