On elections, 'when?' isn't the ultimate question

When the Asean Economic Community formally comes into being just over a year from now, Thailand will most likely still be under an interim government. There are chances that the AEC launch could coincide with another fragile political period in the Kingdom. According to Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, who must know the future Thai political timeline better than most people, an election could be held in early 2016.

The good news is that AEC is not a short-distance race. The economic integration requires all 10 Asean member-countries to prepare for their long-term futures. Who gets what after the first few months will mean little to the question of who will succeed in the long run. Moreover, politics should be just one of several factors affecting Asean’s journey into uncharted territory. Education is crucial, for one thing, and the younger generations will be the ones who really drive the AEC.

The bad news is that no one can guarantee that holding an election here will settle anything politically. One gloomy scenario has Thailand staggering into the AEC era as divided as ever, with political uncertainties affecting government stability and business decisions and forcing foreign investors to constantly review their options. A far worse scenario envisions street turmoil returning, turning any elected government into a lame duck, undermining local business, rekindling prospects of a civil war and scaring off overseas investors.

Optimists, however, can say that limping into the AEC is better than having Thai political rivals shoot or bomb their way into a regional economic integration. There is also the possibility that reform efforts could work. Some current ideas, such as having political parties name potential Cabinet members before voting, and separating MPs from the executive branch, might ultimately be embraced by both sides of the conflict.

Anyway, the timing of a Thai election and the beginning of the AEC are significant. The two could become intertwined since, certainly, Thailand does not want to be the “sick man” of the AEC when the new regional era begins. In other words, while a good or bad start will not ensure success or failure, it’s better to make the first few steps great strides.

It is therefore imperative that all parties involved in what promises to be a bumpy reform process keep in mind the regional implications. Vested interests have always overshadowed common interests in the Thai political divide, but if this doesn’t change now, it will not only be Thailand’s bad start when the AEC is concerned. Thailand could get stuck in a vicious cycle for years and years while its neighbours keep moving forward.

Would an early election help? Many people cried foul when Wissanu, who will be among those instrumental in the reform process, said the election could take place early next year. However, opinion polls have revealed that the average Thai prefers slow-but-sure reform to haste that could overlook key problems. Most Thais are willing to have our “democratic break” last a few months longer if it helps bring about genuine and effective reform.

Taking the AEC into consideration, there is little difference in having an election late next year or early – as long as the voting brings about a truly new beginning. The AEC is best appreciated as a marathon race, not a sprint, and will demand robust health among its members. As far as reforms here are concerned, this is a case where the “how” is significantly more important than the “when”.