Asean: A bridge for the divide between Japan and China

Back in November 2013, China declared an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) covering the islands in the East China Sea, while this year the world has witnessed Japan expand its military, which already boasts one of the strongest fleets in the world, despite constitutional restrictions on its military’s capabilities. 

However, this month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) Summit brought signs of a thaw in the two powers’ frosty relations as China’s President Xi Jinping and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met for official talks for the first time, engaging in a somewhat awkward handshake in front of the cameras. 

But China is still keeping a close eye on growing military ties between the US and Japan. Thus, the East China Sea remains a particularly vulnerable flashpoint for the world.

“These two countries can never solve this conflict by themselves,” says Dr Shuji Hisano from the Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University. He adds that nationalism is the key word to describe the modern difficult relations between China and Japan. “Each government has its own pride and has to take care of [domestic] public opinion. Nowadays in Japan, right-wing conservative, anti-China, anti-Korea sentiment is increasing. The current government, especially Prime Minister Abe, enjoys the support of these people.” 

Though the two Asian powers have begun negotiating at the highest level, the Japanese scholar believes they will still find it difficult to solve their problems.

At the same time, Japan’s business sector has major investments in China and is eager to salvage the relationship between the countries. With continuing tensions threatening their businesses, Japanese industrialists have been pressuring their government to solve the crisis.

Dr Hisano backs calls for a third party to support and facilitate the negotiation between the Asian giants. Asean, with its long experience of facing and managing conflicts, is the proper agent to play this role. And within Asean, Indonesia offers a valuable role model for dealing with conflict. Diverse in terms of culture and religion, the country has successfully managed different claims and opinions from various groups under one nation. This achievement offers lessons for East Asia, the Middle East and other conflict-ridden parts of the world. Led by Indonesia’s example of “unity in diversity”, Asean could be an effective mediator or intermediary in the maritime dispute between China and Japan.

But the role would not come without risk for the regional bloc. 

“This conflict could actually be a threat to Asean too, as China would try to get Asean members on her side – as would Japan,” says Associate Professor Okamoto Masaaki from the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University. “It’s a big challenge for all of us. That’s why Asean has a very important role as a bridge between China and Japan. If Asean arranges a seminar or symposium [on the dispute], it must make sure to always invite both sides.”

Whether Asean could be the key to solve the conflict is still in question, says Masaaki, but the bloc offers a crucial communication channel between China and Japan, who have difficulty talking to each other directly. “If Asean invited them, the countries would likely respond, because Asean countries are important to both. Without Asean, the conflicts between the two will be more tense.”

But playing a stronger role in conflict-mediation would necessitate that Asean members stick together and present a united front. 

Masaaki suggests that the two political hubs of Asean – Thailand on the mainland and Indonesia in maritime Southeast Asia – must establish a tight relationship because they hold the keys to Asean unity amid the separate influence of China and Japan over different member states and the whole region.

On the other hand, Dr Sunida Aroonpipat from Thammasat University’s Asean Studies Programme believes that Asean is in a complicated position, since the bloc acts as an important stage for both China and Japan to exercise their power. Complicating things further is that Asean members are also embroiled in maritime disputes with China.

“Personally, I don’t think China and Japan can ever directly develop collaboration. An East Asian Region Organisation has never been established, due to the severe conflicts between them.” 

When the two countries want to collaborate, communicate or even compete, they often use Asean as a stage. At the same time, Asean members and China are engaged in South China Sea disputes. China, Vietnam and Taiwan claim sovereignty over the Paracels, while Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and again China have competing claims on the Spratlys.

The Thai scholar points out that Asean could play a central role in solving the conflict. Yet, the regional bloc has been hiding behind the rhetoric of non-interference. The association could not play a key role in managing the territory dispute between Thailand and Cambodia over Preah Vihear Temple. And though Asean has directed its attention towards the South China Sea conflicts, it has failed to come up with any declarations on the matter.

Despite the absence of a road map to peace, the two Japanese scholars and the Thai academic believe that neither China nor Japan will choose aggression to enforce their territorial claims, as they realise the primary importance of their economic interdependence.

 Since its founding in 1967, Asean has never played a successful role in settling a territory dispute – but that doesn’t mean it cannot do so in the future. For the past 47 years, the bloc has grown in importance in the global arena and steadily accumulated knowledge through observation of the dispute settlement mechanisms among members and non-member states. It is also crucial to recall that one of the objectives of the association’s establishment is to “promote peace and stability in the region”. Today, the regional bloc has grown beyond 10 nations through Asean+3 (China, Japan, South Korea) and Asean+6 (including India) collaborations. Asean centrality from the economic point of view has thus proven successful at getting countries engaged in severe historical conflicts – namely China, India, Japan, and South Korea – to talk and collaborate together. The East China Sea dispute is, therefore, another big test for Asean’s role as a hub for promoting regional peace and stability. If we compare Asean to a person, it has now entered the life stage at which it must prove itself and create stability for future growth. All it needs is the “courage” to do so. 

 

Polawat Pupipat is a Channel 5 news anchor and Master’s degree student in the Asean Studies Programme at Thammasat University. He attended a summer programme at Kyoto University on a JASSO scholarship.