The Significance of PM Prayut's visit to Japan
The decision to invite Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to Tokyo on February 7-9 was made at the highest level in September. The proposed trip would have taken place long before, if not for the tight schedules of Prayut and his Japanese counterpart, Shinz
To make up for lost time, the visit is scheduled for three-days with a two-night sleep-over and a joint media conference and statement.
The significance of this visit stretches beyond the fact that Japan is the first democratic country to welcome the Thai leader. He has made official visits so far only to members of Asean and China. His first brief foreign visit was to Milan, Italy, to attend the Asia Europe Meeting last October.
Four reasons stand out why Thai-Japan relations have “high qualities” and are unique. First of all, the ties between the Thai Royal family and Japanese Imperial family are extremely close - members have visited each other often over past decades. Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko came to Thailand to commemorate King Bhumibol Adulyadej’s 60-year reign in 2006. Japanese Prince Akishino, who frequently visits Thailand, is an expert on Thai catfish and has an honorary degree in fisheries from Khon Kaen University.
The two countries collaborated during World War II. But Thailand managed to switch to the allies and emerged undefeated without Japan’s antipathy or reprisals. This has bonded the two nations.
Secondly, Thailand has benefitted greatly from Japan’s overseas development aid, which laid down the foundation of the country’s economic development and industrialisation. The Thai automobile industry has been one of the prime examples of a Thai-Japan economic “miracle”. For decades, Japan still remains the top investor in the Kingdom.
Thirdly, the strong people-to-people ties between the two countries have persevered in times of peace and crisis. In the aftermath of the East Japan earthquake in 2011, Thailand donated 20.4 billion yen’s worth of humanitarian assistance to Japan, behind the US and Taiwan. The aid shows Thailand cares deeply about Japan and that friendship endures and continues to strengthen. After waiving visas for Thai passports last June, nearly 50,000 Thais visited Japan monthly afterwards, making them the largest Asean tourist group and the fifth largest overall in foreign visitors. Japan hopes to attract two million Asean tourists by the end of next year to boost its domestic economy.
Finally, there is a new sense of Thai-Japan solidarity, especially on security and strategic matters in absence of the US engagement following the coup in May. This is still a work in progress due to the new regional landscape.
In previous coups, Japan stood side by side with the US, which condemned the Thai power seizures. However, this time around, Tokyo decided to break ranks with Washington and deliberately reach out to the Prayut government, which promptly resulted in the upcoming visit. Tokyo realised that an extended period of no contact, as the US has done, would be disastrous for their long-term bilateral ties.
For decades, this bilateral tie-up was very much part of the broader US-Japan defence cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. Under the Abe administration, Japan is developing a comprehensive strategy for Asia placing high value on its partnership with Asean, making Thailand a key pivot. After moving cautiously to respond to Japan’s overture on maritime security during the Yingluck government, Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister General Pravit Wongsuwan told Tokyo during his visit there early last month that Thailand was open for “all avenues of maritime cooperation” with Japan. Thailand sees Japan as an “Asian power” with its sphere of influence in Asia. Thai-Japan security cooperation will certainly be upgraded.
Thailand recently released a new maritime strategic blueprint for 2015-2021. It calls for a coherent and sustainable policy, among other points, to protect the country’s huge marine resources in both the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand, covering a total area of 320,000 square kilometres with 3,010 km of coastlines. As such, the Royal Thai Navy has been tasked to draw up a long-term operational plan for future implementation in which Japan can provide assistance on maritime-related areas including research, survey and joint training. To safeguard the national interest under the new blueprint, the Thai navy needs to expand its fleet and maritime capabilities.
After the coup, Japan’s renewed engagement with Thailand in September followed an internal assessment that political and economic reform, outlined by the Prayut government, would lay the groundwork and push the country out of a middle-income trap, utilising the country’s location as hub of Asean connectivity and production chains. The ongoing project to develop the Dawei deep-sea port between Thailand and Myanmar will need substantial Japanese financial backing to complete the long awaited East-West ‘corridor’.
Japan wants to remain Thailand’s prime economic mover. Mega infrastructural projects, including the construction of a high-speed train linking Bangkok and Chiang Mai, along with other railways, have been on the Thai-Japan development agenda for a long time. But longstanding political turmoil has prevented them from reaching any tangible outcome. There will be a memorandum of intent on high-speed train construction and investment signed during Prayut’s visit.
The February visit will allow the two countries to reassess the full scale of their cooperation and fill in whatever is needed to deepen this comprehensive partnership.
