A case of from the frying pan into the fire?

There has been talk about how the relationship between Thailand and the United States is about to reach a turning point because Washington has been ignoring the political landscape in Asia as it shifts its focus to the Middle East and elsewhere.
Observers and analysts said this shift has been in the making for at least the past decade, paving the way for China’s soft power to influence Thailand and the region.
And in light of the May 22, 2014 coup when Thailand could not find a sympathetic ear from Washington, this shift could come faster than people expected, they said.
Thailand has long been important ally of the US for many reasons. During the Cold War, common strategic concerns and interests brought the two countries closer.
During the post-Cold War era the United States saw Thailand’s role as the guardian of democratic principles while countries in mainland Southeast Asia were plagued with internal strife and insurgency.
In the 1990s, there was even talk of using Thailand as a model for the generals in Myanmar to emulate. The transition from a Thai military career to the civilian world had interested many.
The rise of regionalism in Southeast Asia also saw the United States playing an active role, balancing China’s assertiveness, especially in the South China Sea where Beijing has overlapping territorial claims with other countries in the region.
The world thought Thailand had already reached a point of no turning back from democratisation. Many thought the 1991 coup would be the last.
And then came one of the greatest scam artists in Thailand’s modern political history, Thaksin Shinawatra, and the destruction of whatever checks and balances the country had in place following the 1997 Constitution.
A coup was launched in 2006 to oust Thaksin and uproot his deep-rooted support. The mandate was eventually returned to the people and Thaksin’s camp returned to power again. And then there was the May 2014 coup.
Of course, all coup plotters have said they wanted to restore democracy. They would justify their actions by warning of the bloody conflict that lay ahead if the coup were not staged.
And now the National Legislative Assembly wants to summon the US charge d’affaires to explain the recent statement by US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel, who said the conviction of Yingluck Shinawatra could be perceived as politically motivated.
In the aftermath of the May 2014 coup, political changes could see Bangkok moving away from the US sphere of influence towards the Chinese faster than expected as the junta could not find an American shoulder to cry on.
But one has to ask whether these countries are really concerned with Thailand’s well-being.
It’s one thing to point out the obvious – that the current ruling junta, or the previous junta, for that matter – may not have had a mandate from the people.
But where were those huffs and puffs when the so-called democratically elected government grossly violated Thai people’s rights – Thaksin’s ‘War on drugs’, extrajudicial killings in the deep South, or the tap dance all over the check-and-balance agencies enshrined in the 1997 people’s Constitution?
Like many of us, Western allies like the US and the European Union misjudged Thailand, thinking that the soldiers had come to terms with the concept of civilian supremacy. They thought the 1991 coup would be the last one.
If the 2006 coup was a rude awakening, the 2014 coup broke their hearts. And so they raised objections and voice their disappointment.
Nevertheless, it would not be wise for the current junta to let emotion and ego rage when mapping out Thai foreign policy.
What were the generals expecting to hear from the Americans? “Good job, gentlemen”?
The Thai rulers of the day can throw a fit over Washington’s criticism and run into the arms of the Chinese, who will embrace them.
But the junta will have to ask itself if these are the arms you want to be held in. The Chinese charm offensive could quickly lose its panda warmth if and when it’s time for payback on debts deemed to be owed.