The significance of strategic partnership with Japan

But now, in the wake of last May’s coup, the US and Europe have largely shunned Thailand. Not only have they expediently branded the takeover a “destruction” of Thailand’s “democracy,” they also set the stage for further punitive action, including the US’ downgrading of the Kingdom to the lowest tier in its Trafficking in Persons report trade, a move that brings further sanctions. The report handily glossed over the fact that it was published just one month after the May coup.

Naturally, as a rising player on both the regional and global stage, China moved in to fill the vacuum. The “take my hand and let’s see where we wake up tomorrow” diplomatic strategy was hard to resist for Thailand’s leadership. Hundreds of Chinese officials have come knocking on every door, keeping the Thai government busy. 

But diplomacy, ultimately, is a balancing act. Thailand has been endowed with an enviable geopolitical location. As Napoleon once said, “ To know a nation’s geography is to know its foreign policy.” As well as China, the current Thai government has tried to forge close relations with powers such as India, South Korea and even Russia, to name a few. But, for many reasons, our most intense interaction remains with China.

So Thailand has been judicious in seeking to bolster its ties with the one and only G-7 nation in Asia – Japan, by elevating its dialogue with Tokyo in the context of strategic partnership.

Since the end of World War II, Japan has been a major democracy and the closest ally of the US in Asia. Its foreign policy has always reflected that of the US. At the height of the Cold War in early 1980s, Japan was known as America’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier”. It is fair to say that Tokyo has never broken ranks with Washington. The foreign policies of Japan and the US have mirrored each other, with the exception of the so-called Nixon “Shocku” in August 1971, when the US president visited China without informing Tokyo.

In its initial reaction to May’s coup, Japan publicly chided the Thai military government, following the US rebuff. However, the Shinzo Abe government’s strategic thinking prevailed, and eventually Tokyo’s frosty attitude thawed. Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha’s recent official visit at the invitation of Abe signified Tokyo’s first major break with US diplomatic imperatives in Asia. And the significance for the respective national interests of both countries should not be lost.

Japan has replaced the US when it comes to foreign direct investment in Thailand. As of January, Japanese’ investment in Thailand exceeded Bt1 trillion, making it our largest foreign investor. The pattern of Japanese investments also comes with an increased transfer of technology. 

Two-way trade between Thailand and Japan in 2013 totalled Bt15.275 trillion with Thailand enjoying the trade surplus of Bt3.663 trillion. During the last decade, Thailand has never been in trade deficit with Japan.

But the bilateral investment and trade ties cannot rival the strategic importance that both Thailand and the Japan hold for each other.

For Japan, Thailand is the gateway to Asean – a regional grouping whose integration has been under constant threat from intra-regional conflicts. With Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and even Vietnam being drawn more and more under Beijing’s sphere of influence, Thailand, for the time being, is holding out.

It is also clear to Tokyo that despite President Obama’s rhetoric of an “East Asia Pivot”, the US leadership is finding it increasingly difficult to pursue an intelligent foreign policy that, in the words of Zbigniew Brzezinski, “does justice to the complexity of the world”. That is one of the reasons why Japan is gradually asserting its independent role in terms of regional relations and security considerations. Breaking ranks with the other six members of the the G7 – the world’s exclusive club of giant economies and developed Western-style democracies – will not be an easy task for Japan. But it has no choice if it wants to fill the void left by the US in Japan’s very own region.

For Thailand, we are a small nation that must appreciate the fact that international politics is a matter of leveraging. Throughout history, Thailand has survived international crises because of its vision and fine-balancing-act strategy. Amid the rapidly changing power shift in our region, we cannot afford to lose sight of this wise geostrategic foreign policy.

Egon Bahr, a German politician who served as secretary to Chancellor William Brandt, said “International politics is never about democracy and human rights. It’s about the interests of states.” 

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger echoed Bahr’s statement when he said, “The US had no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” A county’s foreign policy will only be successful when its leaders gain a clear understanding of the national interest, and are able to convince other powers that those interests coincide with their own. 

That’s the extent of the significance of the closer ties between Thailand and Japan – Asia’s largest democracy and the closest ally of the superpower across the Pacific Ocean highway.