
In its haste to make a deal with China for development of a high-speed rail system in Thailand, the military-backed government seems to have placed the national interest in jeopardy.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is making a concerted effort to get work started on the Nong Khai-Bangkok-Map Ta Phut line while he is still in office, as visible proof that his military government has achieved something.
General Prayut has chosen to ignore warnings that his coup-installed government has no legitimate mandate to make decisions on any major infrastructure. Furthermore, his government seems to be paying a high price, literally, for hustling through the rail deal.
At a meeting in Nong Khai last week, Transport Minister Prajin Juntong and China Railway Corp deputy manager Huang Min agreed on a division of labour under the deal.
Many other details have yet to be settled, but the government is forging ahead to meet a strict timeline. However, time-constrained negotiations won’t yield a positive result for Thailand, since we have little bargaining power.
Prajin reported that China Railways Corp and China Railway Construction Corp should by August complete surveying and designs for Phase 1 of the project (Bangkok-Kaeng Khoi, Saraburi) and Phase 2 (Kaeng Khoi-Map Ta Phut).
The same preparations for Phase 3 (Kaeng Khoi-Nakhon Ratchasima) and Phase 4 (Nakhon Ratchasima-Nong Khai) are scheduled for completion by December.
The deal features an unusual investment arrangement. Rather than request that both sides put in capital – a common practice in joint ventures – Prayut’s government agreed to fund the project from its own coffers, aided by a Chinese loan.
The Thai government has agreed to allocate funds for land and some basic infrastructure, while borrowing from China for the track and signalling system. China’s Ex-Im Bank has offered a 20-year loan at 2 per cent interest with a grace period of six years. The offer is expensive compared with other, similar international arrangements. Prajin said he would negotiate for a reduced rate and longer grace period, but the Chinese bank has conceded little apart from saying the rate would drop if the loan increased.
The division of labour agreed to last week suggests that Thailand, and perhaps Prajin himself, know a good deal less about high-speed rail than the Chinese. Under the accord Thailand would handle work on the basic infrastructure – the laying of track and power supply. Advanced technology and the signalling system would be the responsibility of China.
Both countries would share in operation and maintenance. China has sole responsibility for train operations and rolling stock in the first three years, followed by a four-year period of joint management, after which China will be relegated to a purely advisory role.
China has agreed to Thailand’s request to train staff and transfer technology to the Transport Ministry, State Railway of Thailand and the private sector. Short-term courses of several months’ duration will begin in August, while courses lasting a year or more will kick off before the end of the year.
More important to note is the advantage to China of using standard-gauge tracks (the rails 1.435 metres apart), which mean its trains can ferry cargo and visitors from Kunming via Laos to Bangkok and Map Ta Phut. This means that Thailand will owe China money for building a railway for trains operated by China for China’s benefit. The Thai government should tell the public exactly what benefits Thailand will receive in turn.