Proven fact: Absolute political power can't jack up GDP GROWTH
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Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha faces two major decisions this week: 1. Will he lift martial law? If so, how does he explain the decision to replace it with the all-embracing Article 44 of the interim charter, which may be even more draconian and "dictatorial\
2. Will he reshuffle the Cabinet, particularly ministers in charge of economic management now that the forecast for the economy for the whole year has become gloomier – and the prediction for the year’s performance is equally depressing?
He may choose to wait and see, since both issues are highly controversial and could touch off even worse reactions. But all indications are that the prime minister can’t afford to buy time. Any further delay could play into the hands of those ready to undermine his government’s stability.
The premier is obviously frustrated by these economic doldrums. Exports in the past two months have dropped 4.8 per cent compared to the same period last year. The central bank has reduced its forecast for this year’s GDP growth from 4 per cent to 3.8 per cent while the Asian Development Bank points to 3.6 per cent. Domestic consumption has not picked up. Despite tough orders from the top, disbursements of various government agencies have not accelerated at a rate that could boost spending to jumpstart the economy’s pulse.
Calls for a reshuffle of the economic team in the Cabinet are getting louder. The premier has so far resisted the pressure. To avoid having to shake up his ministers, he has assigned Deputy Premier and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, who heads a special task force to keep the economy moving, to mobilise the private sector to provide a shot in the arm for the country’s business activities.
The country’s top corporate leaders have been invited to a brainstorming session, but, privately, these business leaders have pointed to a lack of sufficient coordination among Cabinet members to get things done.
MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, who is supposed to be the deputy premier in charge of economic affairs, has become the target of criticism. He has denied charges he is at loggerheads with the country’s top economic adviser, Dr Somkid Jatusripitak. He hasn’t categorically cast aside speculation, though, about his conflict with the commerce minister or his inability to forge sufficient teamwork to give the economy a real boost.
The first quarter’s performance, which isn’t expected to produce any positive news, will compel the premier to give his economic team a facelift, having discovered, perhaps, that possessing absolute political power doesn’t necessarily translate into economic results. It’s the day-to-day implementation of an integrated economic, financial and monetary policy that produces real results. Also, the failure of the economic team to communicate with the man on the street has further contributed to the lacklustre performance.
Running parallel to the economic issues is the more sensitive question of security. The premier has consistently shot down calls for the lifting of the martial law. Last week, however, the pressure might have forced him to change tack. He said he would use a new order issued under Article 44 of the interim Constitution to give himself absolute power over executive, legislative and judicial decisions.
“The National Council for Peace and Order is above every other agency in the country,” he declared, prompting fears that the scrapping of martial law may be just a plot to strengthen his power to run the country, raising further questions about whether he will abide by the original road map to hold elections in the early part of next year.
There is little doubt that General Prayut isn’t ready to give up his hold on power at this point. He has made it plain that if any change is to come about in relation to his power, it will be in form only and certainly not in substance.
If he has learned any lesson in the 10 months since he staged the May 22 coup, it’s that absolute political power can’t win every battle, especially the economic one. Unless he can use his “decisiveness” to resolve the stubborn economic malaise, his hanging on to power by shifting from martial law to Article 44 will only plunge him into more trouble.
