Cosying up to authoritarian govts 'A COSTLY GAME'
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Given the cold shoulder by the US and Western European countries over its military coup in May, Thailand's ruling junta is looking elsewhere for friends.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Thailand on Wednesday marked the first time a leader from outside Asia has visited the country since the military took power.
Medvedev is an “old friend”, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said, and characterised their meeting as “very important”.
“Warming up to Moscow lends the Prayut government significant short-term leverage against the West,” says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, head of the Institute for Securities and International Studies think-tank in Bangkok.
“For Thailand under the military regime, Russia represents another geostrategic hedge [against] Western criticisms.”
At the same time that Prayut was hosting Medvedev, Defence Minister and Deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan was in Beijing to boost defence ties. China was the first major power to acknowledge Thailand’s military regime. Prawit was there to discuss the purchase of submarines for the Royal Thai Navy as well as joint military exercises between the two nations.
Closer defence ties with China are seen by analysts as a response to cooler relations with the US. Washington has scaled down its involvement in the annual Cobra Gold exercises hosted by Thailand each February.
Prayut remarked before his meeting with Medvedev that Thailand was interested in purchasing Russian arms.
“The coup represented a unique opportunity for both China and Russia,” says Pavich Supapipat, a government policy analyst at advisory firm Vriens and Partners.
“For years, Thailand was the only US ally in mainland Southeast Asia, but the friction brought about by the coup has let Russia and China move in to fill the void.”
But the military government is only due to be in place for another year before it returns Thailand to civilian rule, and Pavich argues that any foreign policy shifts are only temporary.
“The Thai government’s recent embrace of China and warm welcome of Russia are likely to be short-term, expedient moves to counter Western posturing,” agrees Thitinan.
Both analysts warn that short-term measures could have long-term effects for one of the United States’ oldest allies in the region.
“The military has to balance its need to be recognised with the long-term needs of the country,” Pavich argues. “Otherwise we risk damaging a very good friendship.
Thitinan observes: “Thailand is playing a costly game in cosying up to these authoritarian powers.”
