South China Sea: Will it be history's NEXT GREAT WAR ZONE?

On Monday, President Benigno Aquino of the Philippines, which is embroiled in a territorial dispute with China over the Spratlys, said emphatically that his country would not give up its territory to China and would defend its rights to the best of its ability. The Spratlys are located between the Philippines and Vietnam and about 1,000 kilometres from the nearest Chinese landmass.

At the same time, Aquino acknowledged the mismatch in the military capabilities of his country and those of China. The issue of supplying military equipment is on the agenda for Aquino’s visit to Japan next month.

Yesterday, China outlined plans to shift its armed forces’ focus towards maritime warfare and accused foreign countries of “meddling” in the South China Sea, over 90 per cent of which is claimed by Beijing. After lodging a formal complaint against the US for flying the surveillance plane over the disputed territory, Beijing on Tuesday issued a White Paper declaring that “We will surely counterattack if attacked”. 

The new policy document also outlined China’s plan to shift from a defensive military posture to an emphasis on offensive capabilities. This is in line with President Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” policy of strengthening China’s military power. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is weighing whether to send warships and aircraft into what it says are international waters – that is up to the 12-mile zone around South China Sea territory claimed by Beijing, as opposed to China’s claimed 200-mile “exclusive economic zone”. Meanwhile, a paper published in a tabloid owned by the Chinese Communist Party said China’s construction of runways, harbour facilities and buildings on the disputed Spratly Islands were “China’s most important bottom line”, and that if the United States’ bottom line is to halt China from its activities, US-China armed conflict is inevitable in the South China Sea.”

To understand why the world is suddenly faced with this ticking time bomb, one has to first look at the strategic, resource-rich and economic importance of the South China Sea, and second at the recent unilateral actions by China in pushing its territorial claim over almost the whole area.

The South China Sea is one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, accounting for US$5.3 trillion (Bt179 trillion) worth of trade each year, $1.2 trillion of which is trade with the US. About half of the world’s oil-tanker shipments transit South China Sea waters, and six of the world’s busiest ports are located along its coastlines. 

The US Energy Information Agency estimates that there could be 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas beneath the sea’s floor. The Chinese National Offshore Oil Company puts the numbers at 125 billion barrels and 500 trillion cubic feet – enough to double China’s oil and gas reserves.

Since the 2012 change of political leadership in China, Beijing has grown increasingly assertive not only in pressing its territorial claims but also in actions that reflect a determination not to relinquish territory. Since mid-2014, China’s dredging of reefs and shoals has added 4 square kilometres of land to the Spratlys, including Fiery Cross Reef, which is much closer to Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei than it is to China. “The speed, scale, intensity and remoteness of China’s ongoing manufacture of land and infrastructure within the South China Sea have few or no parallels in history outside of wartime,” wrote Victor Robert Lee at The Diplomat website. China’s giant land reclamation works in the Spratlys (which Beijing calls the Nansha Islands) has turned uninhabited reefs into islands that can host airstrips, lighthouses and other military facilities.

The territorial disputes in the South China Sea encompass the areas within the so-called nine-dotted line (or U-shaped cow-tongue line) that was drawn up by Taiwan in 1947 after the defeat of Japan in World War II. Beijing has adopted that claim as its own because it considers Taiwan to be a Chinese province. Today, the South China Sea territory is considered a “core interest” of China, in the same vein as Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang. That means that Beijing is not likely to back down from its current claim on what it sometimes calls “China Lake”.

The United States, meanwhile, wants to maintain the freedom of navigation in these waters. The potentially extensive reserves of oil and gas in this region will make it very difficult for the US and its allies embroiled in the territorial conflicts with China to back down. Given the high stakes in the disputes and the tendency for parties to the conflict to perceive the situation as a zero-sum game, an armed clash in the South China Sea may be inevitable. Such a military conflict would adversely affect not only the US, China and countries in Asia, but the entire world.

Here, a lesson from the namesake “Nine-dot” puzzle should be heeded. The puzzle is often used to demonstrate and explain how creativity and the ability to think outside the box can overcome a mental impasse. And the wisdom of thinking outside the box is what all sides need to exercise if we are to avoid the unthinkable: history’s next great war.