A new ROAD-MAP TWIST: consolidation versus reconciliation

Observers of the current political landscape are obviously trying to figure out how and when the country will emerge from this maze. Of course, you could say that Thailand’s flirting with “democracy” over the past 80 years or so has been nothing more than a maze game anyway.

After eight decades of experimenting with Western-style democracy, we still aren’t quite sure what “reform” is all about. And when “reform” and “reconciliation” are thrown into the same boiling pot called a “coup”, things get even more confusing.

Just when everybody thought the “reconciliation” effort was being jettisoned after the run-in between Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha and former premier Thaksin Shinawatra over the latter’s public comments on the first anniversary of the May 22, 2014, coup, the general launched a surprise “charm offensive”, inviting protagonists from both sides of the conflict to a series of “chit-chat” sessions with military officers.

It was at more or less the same time that the powers-that-be decided to put an end to the National Reform Council (NRC) – once it votes on the draft constitution on September 4 – and replace it with a Reform Steering Council (RSC).

There is little doubt that the move was motivated by the premier’s disillusionment over the reform process. It’s another step in consolidating his power base – a new twist in the road map.

The fresh strategy is two-pronged, with “consolidation” running in parallel with “reconciliation” while still chanting the “reform” melody and holding high the “security” banner.

Brushing aside rumours of a counter-coup, Gen Prayut seems to have consolidated his military power base, whether or not his younger brother, General Preecha Chan-o-cha, is promoted to the post of Army commander-in-chief in October. It’s the political landscape that appears to be more complicated for him.

With the seven-point amendments to the interim constitution, several political and legal knots seem to have been untied. He could now pave the way for politicians who were banned from participating for five years to return to the field. Although he’s said he wouldn’t put any of them in his Cabinet – or in the National Legislative Assembly or the new Reform Steering Council – Prayut has somehow reduced the prevailing tension between him and the rest of the political class anxiously waiting for his next move.

Of course no one in the know takes the “reform agenda” seriously. And the proposal to ask citizens in a referendum to vote for a two-year “reform before election” incubation period has fizzled out now that we know the road map could be redrawn in a number of ways while behind-the-scenes negotiations on a fresh agenda are worked out.

Depending on how you see it, the upcoming referendum could be either a facilitator or a roadblock against a return to electoral politics. Whether the draft of the new charter will be passed or not will depend largely on whether the compromises being discussed between the Constitution Drafting Committee and dissidents within the NRC are eventually settled.

The biggest paradox, of course, is that, in certain quarters, the belief is growing that the establishment might not really mind if the majority of referendum votes send the draft charter down the drain.

There is order in the apparent chaos. And, if you really follow unfolding events closely enough, you might even come to the conclusion that, for the people in charge, consolidation of power and reconciliation with former opponents aren’t necessarily opposing forces.