Can US initiative reform Cuba's one-party rule?

The United States and Cuba have restored diplomatic ties, with each re-establishing an embassy in the other’s capital.

The restoration of diplomatic ties comes 54 years after the United States broke off relations with Cuba’s then anti-US government in 1961, as they were at odds during the Cold War between the East and the West. There is no doubt that the latest development marks a major turn of events in efforts to end hostilities between Washington and Havana.In January, the administration of US President Barack Obama loosened regulations on travel and money transfers to Cuba, following an agreement reached between the two countries to seek a restoration of diplomatic relations. This was followed by US action in May to remove Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.

All this seems to show that Obama wants to hurriedly accomplish results that could be left as a diplomatic “legacy”, as there are less than 18 months left until his term of office expires.

At a press conference after talks with Cuba’s Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez in Washington, US Secretary of State John Kerry said that “the interests of both countries are better served by engagement than by estrangement”.

Kerry will likely visit Havana on August 14, a move that will make him the first US secretary of state to do so in 70 years. He is expected to hold talks with Cuba over judicial cooperation, anti-drug trafficking measures and the spread of the Internet in Cuba.

There has been a sharp increase in the number of travellers to Cuba from the United States. This has helped raise Cuba’s economic growth rate in the first half of the year to 4.7 per cent, up from last year’s 1.3 per cent. However, there are many problems to be solved in fully normalising diplomatic relations between the two nations.

The greatest hurdle is how to address US economic sanctions on Cuba. Lifting the sanctions requires relevant procedures to be carried out by the US Congress. However, objections to such a move persist within the Republican Party, which controls both chambers of the legislature. This is because the administration of Cuba’s President Raul Castro, a regime that rests on continued one-party rule, is suppressing political freedom and human rights at home.

The Obama administration hopes that there will be growing calls for reforms in Cuba through various US initiatives, including an increase in the number of diplomats at the US Embassy in Havana as a means of increasing contacts between them and ordinary Cubans. Another measure is to promote the wide spread of the Internet among Cubans so information from the outside world can permeate their society.

Meanwhile, Cuba harbours a deep-seated suspicion that United States may engage in what it perceives as “interference” in its internal affairs. If any US action provokes the Castro government, Washington and Havana could wind up with an armful of new hot coals. It is vital for Cuba to promote political reforms if ties with the United States are to be fully normalised. With this in mind, the Obama administration needs to cautiously urge Cuba to adopt a pro-democracy course.

One of the factors behind the US decision to restore diplomatic ties with Cuba is the fact that, in recent years, China has been using its strong economic power as a leverage for making its influence more strongly felt in the Caribbean Sea. The United States has traditionally regarded the region as its “backyard.”

However, China is gradually finding it difficult to aid Latin American nations as generously as it wishes, partly because its economic growth is beginning to suffer an eclipse. Can the Obama administration roll back China’s influence in the region? His government will be tested over whether its policy reversal regarding Cuba will truly fulfill its intended objective.