Is the stage being set for Sudarat's return?

After lying dormant for a few years, Sudarat Keyuraphan appears to be returning to the limelight. There have been rumours and reports, and they all link her to big political roles in the foreseeable future. She has denied some of them, but been reticent about the others. There is no doubt that something is cooking behind the scenes, although we cannot be certain what it is.

There are two main reasons why Sudarat’s name has popped up in political columns or analyses lately. The first is the political and economic storms battling the military-installed government. 

The second is the legal and constitutional setbacks for the Shinawatras which, when combined with other factors, make a triumphant return to politics highly unlikely.

The Pheu Thai camp has virtually nobody else. Phongthep Thepkanjana is a decent “new blood” and Chaturon Chaisaeng is quite popular among hardcore red shirts, but they lack that “sexy” or romantic element required to make a big step up politically. 

Sudarat, on the other hand, is an appealing choice, not least because she can be Pheu Thai's next “iron lady”.

Recent rumours said Sudarat had been involved in secret negotiations on a proposal to set up a national unity government that would feature cooperation between mainstream political parties and the military junta. She strongly denied it, saying being in an administrative body backed by coup-makers was against her principles. The rumour, however, underscored her perceived status as someone who could “bridge” the Thaksin camp and the military.

Another speculation made her the heir apparent of Thaksin Shinawatra, who has seen the political fortunes of his close family members take a turn for the worse. Yingluck Shinawatra has already been impeached by the military-appointed legislature and is facing a court trial over the controversial rice-pledging scheme. Already, she is staring at a life-long ban from politics, and a guilty verdict by the court could be the final nail in her coffin.

Another woman related to Thaksin, Yaowapa Wongsawat, is thought to remain influential but she can’t take centre stage for obvious reasons. All these leave one name as the most sensible candidate to keep the Pheu Thai flying – Sudarat.

Her strengths have to do with an image that is close enough to Thaksin to gain respect from those who admire him, but distant enough from him to get acceptance from his arch-enemies. Her weaknesses include her questionable ties with people surrounding Thaksin. They reportedly don’t like her, and the fact that he likes her. 

Apart from the Shinawatras, some other Pheu Thai heavyweights are known to envy her.

Analysts say Sudarat’s political star is pretty much tied to how serious Thaksin’s backing for her is. No-nonsense backing can override the “envy” factor and keep the Pheu Thai camp from falling apart and make everyone rally behind her. But unless support from Thaksin is clear-cut, Sudarat’s political leadership can be shaky and short-lived.

The irony is, therefore, obvious. Sudarat’s political resurgence can more or less “normalise” politics, bringing the “fight” back to the level it’s supposed to be on. However, it will be very difficult for her to do so without some substantial help from someone directly involved in the cutthroat political showdown that has hampered Thailand for so many years.

Whatever happens next, Sudarat is a political figure to watch. She was known as one of the charismatic politicians, but that was before things started to go downhill for Thailand. 

Whether the stage is being set for her remarkable return must be one of the most intriguing political questions at present.