Suthep's vow of support for govt: Boon or bane?

Of course, it’s a tongue-in-cheek counter-statement by those attached to the former Yingluck government who view Suthep’s new move as a thinly veiled plan to keep the current military-backed government in power for as long as possible.

With Suthep having ended his 13-month period in the monkhood to launch his “civic movement” and pick up where the People’s Democratic Reform Committee left off just before the May 22 coup last year, confrontational politics has reared its ugly head yet again, although both sides have refrained from threatening to hold rallies, which the military leaders of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) have insisted are still strictly prohibited.

Suthep has vowed that his new activities won’t involve organising protests. Rather than turning out on the streets, the movement will submit written recommendations to the authorities. Its official position is clear: No election without reform – and there should be no deadline for the completion of reforms. That, inevitably, raised eyebrows in most quarters: Is Suthep pushing for an indefinite postponement of the election date? 

With Suthep’s declaration, several vital questions have emerged, to which no satisfactory answers can be obtained without Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha first making his position clear over where he stands on Suthep’s latest announcement.

The questions being thrown around include: What does “reform” really mean in this context? Who defines “reform?” How long does “real reform” take? Who decides when the supposed reform is “completed?” 

Another crucial question is, how does Suthep’s “reform agenda” fit in with the proposals being drawn up by the National Reform Council, which is due to be dissolved once the 250 members vote on the constitution draft in early September?

There is also a lingering question over Muan Maha Prachon’s links to the Democrat Party. Officially, both Suthep and party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva insist they are two separate entities, but most observers take those claims with a pinch of salt. 

Faced with overwhelming scepticism, Suthep’s deputy, Akanat Promphan, has come up with a new statement, asserting that the Muan Maha Prachachon movement isn’t trying to derail the upcoming election or to press for its indefinite postponement. “We are simply saying that reform must be speeded up to fit the government’s road map.” 

Yet even with that new, revised version, things remain vague since nobody can predict with any certainty how the government’s road-map plans will proceed. For one thing, whether the NRC will endorse the draft charter in early September or not remains uncertain. For another, even if the draft is passed, there is no guarantee it will receive the required majority vote in the national referendum. 

In other words, anything could happen along the way. And the return of Suthep and his supporters to “alternative politics” will undoubtedly add spice – if not dynamite – to the already fragile political landscape.

General Prayut will have to tread very carefully in at least appearing to keep a proper distance from all political factions, if he is to avoid being branded as biased or, worse, accused of trying to manipulate the warring groups to prolong his grip on power.

The imminent large-scale Cabinet reshuffle will determine whether he can boost public confidence in his government. The tricky details of the draft constitution on several controversial issues will shape the new political landscape. The unrelenting pressure to follow the road map and hold a general election no later than the end of next year will continue to guide his next steps. 

The real challenge isn’t whether the red shirts should be allowed to talk about the birds and the bees. Rather, it is whether Suthep’s vow to support the current government is in effect a boon or a bane.