Army reshuffle gives Prayut another headache

Prayut has made an interesting vow, which is probably as important as his pledge to crack down on corruption. The coup-maker, who has received a fair share of international criticism, discussed the issue of who would be the next Army chief during an interview at Government House on June 2. Essentially, he said his brother would not enjoy special treatment when the decision is made on the most powerful military post.

Prayut, chief of National Council for Peace and Order, faces the potentially explosive issue of who will replace General Udomdej Sitabutr, who retires as the Army commander-in-chief in September. Prayut promised that the selection of the new Army chief will be based on qualifications and not personal connections. That is the same thing Thailand’s powers-that-be have been saying over and over and which has never amounted to anything but rhetoric.

Prayut’s constitutional “reform” road map is tough, but how he deals with the issue of military transition is harder. On the one hand, Prayut needs to consolidate. On the other hand, he needs to prove that he is beyond nepotism, or he will fall into the same category as the ones he often criticises. With Udomdej’s retirement approaching, the succession issue will provide a great distraction both for the prime minister and the whole of Thailand. 

The position of Army chief has long been considered to be important to any government’s stability. Even governments with big popular mandate were unable to escape the lure of nepotism or shake off the feeling of insecurity when the big military position was concerned. One infamous example was the rise to the post of General Chaiyasit Shinawatra, a cousin of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in 2003.

That Prayut needs to consolidate is understandable, if not desirable. He will need solid military support going into the crucial phase of his “reform” agenda. Both sides of the Thai divide are watching him closely, one camp more so than the other. Signs that Prayut will have to stay in power longer than he said he would were believed to be one of the causes of rumours about a “counter-coup”. Simply put, Prayut will soon be needing full military backing, more than ever.

To further complicate his situation, it’s not just about divided Thais. Not everyone in the military will be happy if Prayut’s younger brother rises to power.

 It was speculated that if General Preecha Chan-o-cha, an Army assistant chief and younger brother of Prayut, becomes the next Army chief, those supporting General Thirachai Nakwanit, the other Army assistant chief, would be dissatisfied. In the Thai political and military contexts, senior Armed Forces’ “dissatisfaction” is a big deal.

And it won’t be just Thirachai’s supporters. Although Preecha and Thirachai can be assumed to be from the same military power clique, there are factions that want to see the top Army post not monopolised by the “Burapha Phayak” people, who are in control at the moment.

A really testing period is approaching. In his June 2 interview, Prayut asked the media not to create trouble “out of nothing”. If he is right on other things, he’s wrong about military reshuffles being the media’s imaginary trouble. And the proof may be just a few weeks away.