Your move, Russia. What will it be?

For a group of countries that is supposed to be working together to destroy the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, cooperation among Russia, Turkey and the United States has been severely tested over these past few days after the Turkish military shot down a Russian jetfighter for allegedly crossing into its airspace.

Needless to say, the fight against Isis took on a greater urgency after the recent terrorist attack in Paris that killed 130 people and injured many more.

The Russian jet, Su-24, was part of a military intervention that involved thousands of bombing missions and cruise-missile hits to help save the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Iran and a Lebanese armed group, Hezbollah, also back Syria.

The fact that Russia is focusing its military resources on defending the region of Latakia, the government’s stronghold where Russia also has naval bases, has not gone down well with the Western coalition fighting Isis.

To complicate matters even more, the rebel groups in Latakia are ethnic Turks with strong ties to Turkey, which shares a deep affinity with the people being hit by Russian bombs.

And then came the downing of the Russian jetfighter and the diplomatic scramble to control the damage.

It was not the first time that Russia violated Turkey’s airspace since this intervention into the Middle East conflict and let’s hope for the sake of the anti-Isis coalition, or whatever’s left of it, the incident is not repeated.

The latest move from Moscow was a punitive sanction against Turkey. Like other economic sanctions around the world, it will not be a game changer. And let’s hope that it will not go beyond the expected standard reaction from a major power, which doesn’t want to look weak in the eyes of the world.

For the time being both sides are sounding tough. Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the drama “saddened” him but gave no indication that Turkey will apologise. Moscow, on the other hand, has been saying that it is prepared for the long haul on this stand-off against an “unprecedented threat” from Turkey but did not spell out in concrete terms what will be done. 

As these two countries go at it, Europe is doing some soul searching on a number of things – from the influx of refugees from the Middle East fleeing Isis and bombings against the group, to the growing insecurity that breeds anti-Islam sentiment among the people because of the Paris terror attacks.

Europe can’t afford to play into Isis’ hands and must do its utmost to ensure that this anti-Islam, anti-immigration sentiment does not get blown out of proportion.

As French President Franois Hollande put it, the strike in Paris was not just a strike against Paris, but a strike against Europe as a whole.

The urgency to finalise this coalition comes with the realisation that the United States is not going to get itself deeper in the Middle East. Besides, being on the other side of the Atlantic, America doesn’t feel as threatened as Europe.

What’s still lacking is a sound strategy. Certainly, air strikes alone are not going to work.

Will there be ground troops to force Isis out of Raqqa, the so-called “capital of the caliphate”? Lets not forget the foot soldiers needed for the post-war effort. After Iraq and Afghanistan, Western governments might not have the appetite for such a task.

For the time being, all eyes are on Russia. How long is Moscow willing to back the Syrian regime is anybody’s guess. But Putin should know that if he keeps this up too long and Assad is ousted anyway, Russia may not have a meaningful role in post-conflict Syria.

Major power, it seems, comes with major responsibility. Putin needs to think about his and Russia’s legacy. Surely he doesn’t want to be remembered as the Russian leader who bet on the wrong horse.