Democrats, Pheu Thai made strange bedfellows

Thailand’s bitter political rivals may be finding themselves in unfamiliar waters leading to the upcoming referendum on the charter draft. That is to say that the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties may have to conspire for the sake of their very slight common interests. Having fought bitterly in a cut-throat showdown that was largely responsible for the military intervention a couple years ago, the country’s two biggest political camps must be wanting to restore at least a semblance of the arena where they used to go toe-to-toe.

The controversial charter draft, virtually supported by the military, seems to be binding the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties together to a complex situation. Due to some contentious parts of the draft that critics decry as undemocratic, both parties need to project impressions that they find it “unacceptable.” But what really put the enemies on the same boat must be their secret desires to push the military out of the way fast. And a surefire way to have an early election is to let the charter draft pass the referendum.

A general election will allow Pheu Thai to reflex its muscles, although it may not completely repel “military influences” looming over the Thai politics. As for the Democrats, the election will at least return them to the ring after a long period as virtual watchers. If the charter draft is reject?ed in the referendum, unpredictabil?ity could prevail, largely because the interim Constitution is vague about what happens next. The country could be threatened with another round of political violence. The mili?tary could be tempted to reassert control or tighten its grip. A Constitution probably worse than this charter draft could be unilateral?ly installed. The political “arena” could continue to be off limits to the 

 politicians from both parties.

Simply put, while the current char?ter draft will badly affect both parties if passed, worse things can happen if the document is shot down. This cer?tainly hasn't gone unacknowledged by the two parties' top bosses. They can decide to go for broke and mount a no-holds-barred campaign against the draft Constitution, or they can decide that the draft is as good as they can get. In a way, Thai politicians are like a boxer entering the last round behind on points and exhausted. That boxer can choose to go for broke, throwing everything at his opponent, or opt for a safe energy-conserving strategy thinking that there can always be a rematch.

The politicians must be pondering the possible consequences of an out-and-out campaign against the mili?tary and the alternative option of making a step-by-step approach to dilute its political power. A lot of fac?tors will come into play, namely the “unity” among the generals, the result of Yingluck Shinawatra's rice scandal trial, the Thai economy, the ebb and flow of Prayut Chan-o-cha's popularity rating and how the Democrats measure their different “enemies”. 

It's easy to describe what the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties openly and secretly want. Both of them cer?tainly hope to win back some control. It's difficult, however, to predict what they will do to achieve their goals, not least because one wrong step can defeat their purposes.

Pheu Thai stands a bigger chance of winning the next election, but the Democrats can also feel like the next poll can be theirs. This makes an early general election both parties' com?mon, albeit unspoken, target. This also makes them extremely ambiva?lent about the August 7 referendum on the charter draft.