An ominous rumble from under the sea

The test missile flew only 30 kilometres, far short of the 300km range needed to qualify as a short-range ballistic missile (SLBM). But the significance of the solid-fuel launch came with the progress made in submarine ejection capability, after liquid-fuel rockets failed in testing last year. 

Military experts in Seoul say North Korea appears to have finally achieved success by switching to a more stable and robust solid-propellant design. 

The successful test should pave the way for more launches, with Pyongyang keen to enhance its nuclear delivery capability.

The South Korean Defence Ministry predicts that the North will be able to deploy SLBMs within the next three to four years. 

Military experts add that the North may have already started to develop a 3,000-tonne submarine as a stable platform for the launch of multiple SLBMs. 

For Saturday’s test, the North used a 2,000-tonne Sinpo-class submarine, capable of launching just one SLBM from a depth of 10 to 15 metres, which exposes the sub to the risk of detection. A sub needs about 50 metres of depth to avoid detection.

The construction of bigger submarines capable of carrying multiple missiles would make North Korea’s nuclear threat far more potent, as mobile sea-based ballistic missiles are much harder to detect.

With North Korea’s SLBM threat increasing, Seoul needs to step up its counter-submarine capabilities. 

To ensure early detection of the movements of our neighbour’s submarines, the government needs to launch more advanced satellites and introduce early-warning anti-ballistic missile radar. It also needs to deploy more sea-borne patrol aircraft.

Meanwhile we will have to build and deploy more Aegis warships to detect and destroy any missiles launched as part of an attack from the North. The arms race must extend to bigger submarines with powerful offensive capabilities if we are to fend off the growing undersea threat from the North.