Referendums in Britain, Thailand: the similarities and the differences

Famous examples include the 1978 referendum on Proposition 13, when nearly two-thirds of Californians voted to slash property tax on homes, businesses and farms by about 57 per cent.

Direct democracy in Germany saw the southwest states of Baden and Württemberg merge in 1951 to become the country’s third-largest.

In the United Kingdom, a rare major referendum in 1975 saw an impressive 67 per cent vote to stay in the European Communities (now European Union), on a 65 per cent turnout.

Forty-one years on, Britons are once again being asked whether they want to leave or remain in the EU. But this time the whole world is on tenterhooks to know the result.

In its half-yearly assessment of the world economy released in April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) listed Britain’s June 23 referendum as a key risk, along with instability in China and other emerging markets, volatile share prices, and a loss of long-term growth potential in advanced economies.

The possibility of a “Brexit” also raised concern recently among G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Sendai, Japan, who warned it would cause a new shock to the already fragile global economy.

After the meeting, UK Finance Minister George Osborne revealed an exit vote would leave the UK facing a two-year period of renegotiations with its 27 former EU partners. It would also need to conclude 50 trade deals with non-EU countries. Businesses require certainties and those would have to be rebuilt if Britain burned bridges with Europe. 

Hardly a surprise then that British media and pollsters have been obsessed with the referendum since the first day of campaigning on April 15.

With a month to go before the vote, the latest YouGov poll shows a 4 per cent lead for “Remain” (44 per cent) over “Leave”, with 12 per cent of respondents still undecided. An average of the last six opinion polls taken by the What UK Thinks website in April placed Remainers at 55 per cent and Leavers on 45 per cent.

Brexit campaigners are focused on immigration and refugees, complaining that EU borders are too porous.

 Typical of the argument’s other side is a British national in Thailand I spoke to recently, who countered that the fear was unfounded. He, for one, will vote to remain.

Observant Thais will have noted the transparency and openness with which the UK referendum is being conducted. Everyone from the prime minister to the most underprivileged citizen is free to air their opinions, whether for or against. Meanwhile credible, independent pollsters inform all of the state of play. Whatever side they’re on, everyone is ready for the result. And in a month, we will know what British people have decided, and how the world reacts.

That’s pretty much the opposite of what is happening in Thailand. As Thais prepare to vote on the draft constitution on August 7, the only opinion being freely aired is that of the drafters. Even Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, way on a diplomatic mission to Russia, was forced to watch the drafters’ first public panel from afar last week.

So far, no poll to gauge voter turnout or decisions on the draft has been published. Thailand’s referendum also skirts international norms by containing more than one question. Here, along with the core choice on the charter draft, voters will be presented with two subordinate questions.

Though public referenda have been enshrined for over 60 years in Thai law, it took until 2007 until the first was called, on the draft charter of that year.

Nine years later the Election Commission is publicising the latest referendum, though it remains to be seen how many voters will show up on the day. Also uncertain is how many anti-coup activists will dare defy the commission’s strict ban by campaigning for a “No” vote. The National Council for Peace and Order’s actions also raise concerns about an authoritarian approach to criticism which has seen student activists detained for campaigning against the draft.  A glimmer of hope came when representatives of three political parties were allowed to discuss the referendum at the Foreign Correspondents Club recently.

Uncertainties over the turnout are focused on young voters, aged 18-34. 

In the UK, the strongest support for the “Remain” camp is reportedly among young people – who are also the least likely to vote. Pollster Opinium found that 53 per cent of respondents in this age group said they would back a move to stay, against 29 per cent who wanted to leave. But barely more than half (52 per cent) said they were certain to actually go out and vote.

It’s notable that for the 2007 referendum in Thailand, 57.81 per cent voted “yes”. The remaining 42.19 per cent rejected the draft. That constitution was nullified seven years later. Statistics for voter age weren’t made available, but we can reasonably expect that the turnout for young voters was disproportionately low, in keeping with experience elsewhere. It remains to be seen how this phenomenon will affect the result on August 7, which will certainly shape the future of each and every Thai.