Maritime ruling aside, now is the time for diplomacy

It should be clear enough to all that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is an organisation that abides by the rules, and especially international rules of law. Asean documents on the territorial conflict in the South China Sea have in the past advocated peaceful negotiations in accordance with the rule of law and abhorred any use of force. In the wake of this week’s ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, several Asean member-states have issued statements reflecting their own independent views, but there has been nothing to contradict the bloc’s firm position favouring peaceful settlement. Thailand was the first country to comment on the tribunal’s deliberations, a few hours before the decision was announced. The government issued a generalised statement covering the points on which Asean is agreed, particularly respect for international rules of law, the avoidance of force and the need for restraint. Like its neighbours, Thailand attaches great importance to maintaining peace and stability across Asia. In the midst of domestic reform, it is keen to foster an environment conducive to sustainable growth and prosperity.

Once the court judgement was announced, Singapore and Malaysia were able to take stronger positions in their separate statements, focusing on the ruling’s impacts on the region. Myanmar’s statement represented the first comment on the sensitive issue from the new government there.

If the issue was always leading Asean-China relations to a crossroads, the Hague decision finally delivers us there. We are marking the 25th anniversary of this partnership aimed at greater cooperation in trade and social interaction. In September there will be a special summit to commemorate the occasion, over which the maritime controversy is sure to cast a shadow. It will be a challenging moment for Asean, whose members have consistently been counselled to respect the legal and diplomatic processes, exercise restraint and avoid any actions that might raise tensions within the region and on its borders.

China has stood by its vow to dismiss the Hague verdict as irrelevant, reiterating its commitment to resolving the disputes in the sea through negotiations and other peaceable means. For now, since neither the Philippines nor any other Asean member is capable of acting on the ruling, the ball is in the court of the international community to challenge China’s claims to sovereignty. And yet Beijing is apt to feel pressure more intensely from the immediate region than the world at large. It remains to be seen how it reacts. It surely must weigh its options carefully.

Later this month the foreign ministers of Asean and China will meet in Vientiane. Their first gathering since the tribunal’s decision will afford the first opportunity for Asean to test whether the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea can be effectively implemented. They will press for expediting a legally binding code of conduct in the maritime area, work on which has made some progress over the past four years but whose completion awaits the additional political will. 

Now, with the Court of Arbitration verdict in hand, the parties concerned must pause before moving forward, taking into account the repercussions of bringing their goal to fruition – how it will affect Asean-China relations in the long run. Cool heads must prevail.

Asean unity becomes more crucial than ever. Even as its members issue separate statements that diverge on some of the finer points, there must be constancy in the bloc’s policy of peace rather than force. An amiable solution to the conflict is needed before contagion spreads beyond the region.