Suppleness needed as Asean cracks apart

Without flexibility, the territorial disputes in the South China Sea between China and four members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations cannot be solved peacefully. The conflict has enormous potential to undermine essential cooperation in other areas, both within the region and beyond.
The foreign ministers of Asean held their annual meeting with their Chinese counterpart in the Lao capital Vientiane this past weekend. The storm over the South China Sea could not be ignored, much as the host nation and neighbouring Cambodia might have liked it to be, given their increasingly close relations with Beijing. The ministers had to find a way to address this month’s ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, and all the lightning was flashing in China’s direction.
Four Asean member-nations have long been at loggerheads with Beijing because of their overlapping claims to territory in the sea.
Asean and China have been struggling to find an amicable solution for more than a decade. The furthest they’ve reached to date was agreement on the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. But it is non-binding and as such has failed to prevent China from developing atolls and reefs, its claim to sovereignty over which is disputed. Despite tensions occasionally coming to a boil, with vessels of the rival claimants even exchanging fire, China has managed to remain on generally good terms with Southeast Asia. That relationship took a blow, however, when the arbitration panel in The Hague sided firmly with the Philippines, rejecting Beijing’s claim to a historical right to the disputed territory. Beijing refuses to acknowledge the judgement and has lobbied individual members of Asean to take its side in the conflict.
This weekend’s session was another chance for the bloc to heed the pleas of the Philippines and Vietnam to present a unified front against Chinese bullying and urge it to honour the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the tribunal’s ruling.
A week before the meeting, though, Laos – current chair of Asean – announced it would not be making any statement regarding the arbiters’ decision, and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said he was indeed on China’s side in the matter. The split in the Southeast Asian bloc was wide open and might be irreparable. National interests trumped collective benefits. Regional peace and stability come under threat.
In Vientiane on Sunday the group’s non-claimants in this affair, including Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore, tried to reconcile the combatants and smooth relations with Beijing. There was a glimmer of hope at least that a patch might be possible. No one really wants to slam the door on what is, after all, a lucrative partnership for all.
Beijing indicated it is willing to discuss the issues further with the rival claimants separately and with Asean as a group.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi said this dual-track approach would aim to resolve the conflict peacefully. In Manila, new president Rodrigo Duterte appointed one of his predecessors, Fidel Ramos, as special envoy to China, although Ramos said enigmatically that, in the wake of the arbiters’ ruling, his mission entailed “more than just talking” to Beijing.
Ramos’ ominous hint aside, it is heartening that the competing claimants appear ready to work out an amicable arrangement.
The codes of conduct are in place, the mutual benefits are evident, and an international judgement at least gives the Philippines a solid leg to stand on.
All parties involved must keep the momentum of goodwill going and negotiate further in good faith. We have much to gain and much to lose.