What lies ahead for Asean and Beijing

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has weathered several storms in its 49 years. More than ever as its 50th anniversary approaches, it is relying on its survival instincts and lessons learned, facing as it is the mightiest country on this side of the planet. The dispute over territories in the South China Sea requires tremendous caution and exquisite balance between the interests of the group as a whole and its individual members.

China is one of the Southeast Asian bloc’s most valued trade and financial partners. Our long history of cultural and economic ties forms the backdrop in every decision made today. Militarily and economically a giant compared to Asean and its member-nations, China is nevertheless closer to our level in terms of trying to match capabilities to ambitions. We are all on the same steep learning curve.

The past six years have seen Asean plagued by disagreements among its members over how best to deal with Beijing, primarily over competing claims to islets, reefs and atolls in the South China Sea. For a vast maritime territory, the sea has become a quagmire of sorts, the rival claimants pushing and shoving for dominance as the international community looks on with apprehension. The world waits to see how much success Asean has in its grappling with China and by what methods, since, as Beijing well knows, this is a test of its power and influence. 

It was encouraging to see the bloc seemingly becoming more unified at its annual foreign ministers’ summit in Vientiane, where Beijing signalled its readiness to discuss the South China Sea territories further, with both the group and the individual members. Fresh from a ruling in its favour at an international tribunal on the issue, the Philippines under new president Rodrigo Duterta has welcomed the shift in focus to additional negotiations. With that nod to diplomacy, squabbles within Asean could be set aside. Cambodia and Laos – neither one claiming land in the sea – had come down firmly on China’s side, threatening what could still become an irreparable split in the bloc. But the session in Vientiane ended in consensus after all.

When the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague agreed with the Philippines that China had no sovereign claim to the Spratley Islands, the US, Japan and Australia were quirk to urge Asean to act on the ruling and admonish China to abide by its strictures. However, quite apart from the fact that the Philippines alone took the matter to arbitration, the prodding from afar was uncalled for, since Asean always prefers discretion to the flexing of muscles. 

Manila has been magnanimous, in fact, allowing China and its partners in Asean extra time and leeway to review the situation and try to adjust their stances. And Vietnam, although strongly inclined to pursue the arbitration route itself, has been supportive of Asean’s approach.

In the joint communique that closed the Vientiane summit, the Asean ministers presented a united front in their preparedness to bargain with Beijing on the issue. China and Asean are after all celebrating 25 years of diplomatic relations, it was noted – all the more reason to mend cracks and think of the future.

Many challenges lie ahead. China and Asean must revive trust and confidence, which have eroded amid the maritime dispute. It is essential there be no militarisation of the conflict, and that self-restraint be the watchword. The ongoing process of drafting a code of conduct in the sea must become more expedient, and if possible given a firm date for completion. 

If Asean and China can meet such challenges on their own, there will be no need for outside advice or assistance. We have been of benefit to one another and we share the same learning curve. Mutual appreciation should be the primary guideline.