Suu Kyi, Beijing and Chinese-backed rebels in northern Myanmar

No one knows how frank Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi was to the Chinese leaders during her visit to Beijing.
But when it comes down to it, something has to give. China cannot talk about its desire for peace and stability along their common border without revising its relations with armed ethnic armies, such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which is often known as the Mong La group, a “special zone” deep in the heart of the Burmese sector of the Golden Triangle.
China’s recent relations with these groups and many others go back more than half a century through cross-border cooperation between Chinese forces and Communist leaders using these ethnic groups as proxies.
The Communist Party of Burma fell apart in 1989 but personal ties between leaders on both sides of the border are strong and continue to define cross-border relations.
But Myanmar has been telling Beijing that while friendship between China and these leaders is long lasting, it should not come at the expense of Myanmar’s national security.
To make its case, the Myanmar army in 2009 attacked the MNDAA stronghold, forcing tens of thousands of ethnic Chinese nationals to flee back to the Yunnan side of the border.
In a popular Thai saying, the 2009 offensive against the Kokang Chinese was described as “slitting the chicken’s throat to scare the monkey”. In this case, the chicken was the Kokang Chinese, the ethnic group that dominated the MNDAA, while the monkey was the United Wa State Army (UWSA), a 30,000-strong ethnic army that controls an autonomous territory in Myanmar’s Golden Triangle.
If Sino-Myanmar relations of the past and recent past are defined by mistrust, Suu Kyi’s visit could be a signal that the two countries are willing to turn a new page.
As Bertil Lintner pointed out in a recent interview with The Irrawaddy magazine, it required a balancing act on Beijing’s part. Chinese leaders may be more comfortable in dealing with Suu Kyi than the military despite her reaching out to Western countries as part of Myanmar’s strategy to be less dependent on China.
But one can’t deny the fact that the Burmese military is the most powerful institution in the country and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
During its years of isolation, China was often seen as the window to the hearts and minds of these Burmese generals. But it would be misleading to believe that Burma has never put all of its eggs in China’s basket.
Now that it has more breathing space, – that is, less pressure from the outside world – Myanmar, with the help of Suu Kyi, is determined to stand on its own two feet.
The dilemma for the international community, namely Western countries and institutions, is that, unlike China, they are not willing to come down from the moral high ground on human rights and humanitarian concerns, such as the sticky issue of stateless Rohingya, one of the world’s most persecuted minorities. This is one card that China has over others in terms of warm ties with Yangon.
The red carpet treatment for Suu Kyi is understandable given the fact that Beijing, like any other global power, is determined to establish a foothold in the new Myanmar.
It’s in China’s interest to make her visit a success. If no major breakthrough was achieved, at least Suu Kyi and the Chinese have to depart with the feeling that the countries can look forward towards a brighter future.
Suu Kyi can do all the globe-trotting she wants to bolster the new Myanmar. In the end, she cannot escape China’s geographic proximity and its role in her government’s moves to secure a lasting peace with its ethnic minorities.
Two of the leading ethnic armies in northern Myanmar are armed and backed by China. One of them, the UWSA, has three regiments near Thailand’s northern border.
Not only do they pose a security threat to Thailand, the Wa continues to flood the world’s cities with methamphetamines. Many Thai youths are addicted to the substance. But we could be waiting for a long time for Myanmar to clamp down in these illicit activities on their side of the border, given the deep mistrust and fighting still plaguing parts of the country’s north.
Mending relations, strategic re-alignment and seeking the right balance between Myanmar and the rest of the world appears to be a bigger fish to fry for the time being.