Philippine military defies Duterte over pivot against US

The Philippine military announced last week its first large-scale joint combat exercises with American forces under the Rodrigo Duterte administration, in a dramatic rebuff of the president’s criticism of US security policies.

The announcement came on the heels of a speech in which President Duterte said he would not allow Philippine forces to conduct joint patrols with the US military in the disputed South China Sea because he feared it could spark armed conflict on territory claimed by the Philippines.

Duterte has also alarmed Philippine allies in the Asia-Pacific – notably Japan and Vietnam – by calling on the United States to withdraw its forces from Mindanao, where he said the minority Filipino Muslims resented the presence of US troops.

The participation of Philippine troops in the October 4-12 combat exercises is not merely for joint patrols in disputed waters. It is a major show of force involving 1,400 US military personnel and 500 Philippine Marines in amphibious landing and live-fire exercises at a northern gunnery range in the Philippines.

These exercises lend military muscle to the PH-US Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which the Philippine Supreme Court upheld in January. The VFA gives the US military the right to increase troops deployed in the Philippines for the war games, and to bring equipment into military areas, including Subic Bay, the former site of a US naval base that overlooks the disputed South China Sea.

This is the security arrangement that Duterte seeks to dismantle in his reckless bid to end US military presence in the Philippines. He has claimed that he wants to pursue an independent security and foreign policy, but this stance has put the Philippine military on the spot, and prompted the announcement expanding the US participation in the joint exercises.

Despite Duterte’s provocative statements, US State Department spokesperson John Kirby said Washington had not received any formal request to withdraw its forces from Mindanao, and that it would be premature to respond to media reports on Duterte’s comments. “We remain committed to our alliance with the Philippines,” Kirby told reporters in Washington. “It’s been a long, productive history.”

Presenting himself as a nationalist by playing up the anti-American line, Duterte declared a state of national emergency due to a “state of lawlessness” following a bomb attack in his home city of Davao early this month. The declaration allows him to use the military to assist in fighting crime and violence. He added that the presence of US forces would inflame the situation and suggested they may be targets for kidnap or murder by local terrorist groups.

In announcing the Philippines’ participation in the expanded war games, the military appears to be sending a message warning Duterte against tampering with longstanding joint security mechanisms with the United States.

Military authorities have noted that Duterte describes himself as a socialist, and has said he is charting a foreign policy not dependent on the United States as a treaty ally. He has taken steps to revive ties with China, which were strained under the Aquino administration. It was during the term of president Benigno Aquino that a suit was filed by the Philippines at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague against Beijing’s territorial claim in the South China Sea. The arbitral court eventually ruled that China’s claim over almost the entire sea has no basis in international law. China has refused to recognise the ruling.

Duterte’s conciliatory overtures to China appear to be undermining the prospects of implementing the arbitral court’s ruling. He appears oblivious of the contradictions posed by his friendly approaches to China vis-a-vis his declaration of forging an independent foreign policy. He has been sending mixed signals on his security and foreign policies, which seem to be mired in ambiguities.

For example, while Duterte steps up his attacks on the United States, he has said he will not abrogate the US-PH Mutual Defence Treaty and will maintain the longstanding alliance of the two countries. He has also said the Philippines needs the United States as a counterbalance in the South China Sea. He made the statement in the course of explaining his earlier remark that he might ask the US Special Forces to leave Mindanao to pave the way for talks with Moro rebels who have historical grievances over abuses suffered at the hands of the US colonial administration.

“I have never said ‘get out of the Philippines’. After all, we need them there in the South China Sea. We don’t have armaments,” Duterte said. He added that the Philippines is not ready to go to war with China, because it would be a “massacre”.

What’s his clout – his foul mouth and insults to the United States and also to the United Nations?