
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has once again sent shock waves reverberating across the the world, this time by declaring his country was divorcing its most powerful international ally.
“I announce my separation from the United States. Both in military, not maybe social, but economics also,” said Duterte last week, speaking at a forum of Chinese and Filipino businesspeople.
“America has lost,” he added.
The declaration has caused confusion and dismay in Washington, whose foreign policy “rebalance” to Asia relies heavily on the cooperation of Manila to curb China’s territorial ambitions.
However, Duterte’s move towards a more independent foreign policy could benefit both the Philippines and the regional balance of power. He made the announcement while on a state visit to China, which is at loggerheads with the Philippines over long-standing territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
The US State Department said it was “baffled” by Duterte’s statement but insisted that the bilateral relationship remained strong. A White House spokesperson said Duterte had made troubling statements recently that lent uncertainty to ties with the US and were at odds with their alliance.
The Filipinos are unlikely to be prepared for such a dramatic policy shift and many must fear the consequence of a military and economic divorce from their erstwhile ally.
Albert del Rosario who served as foreign secretary under the previous administration of Benigno Aquino, said such a separation would be a national tragedy.
President Duterte has a reputation for speaking first and thinking later. And once again he has been forced to clarify his statement after it caused a storm, saying on Saturday that his country would not sever ties with the US.
His foreign minister Perfecto Yasay added that Washington remained the “closest friend” of the Philippines, but Manila wanted to break away from a “mindset of dependency and subservience” and forge closer ties with other nations.
Yasay said in a Facebook post that Duterte had “unmistakably” stated that severing ties with Washington was not in the nation’s interest.
Duterte’s declaration might have lacked diplomacy, but if the gist behind the words is for a more independent foreign policy, his country and the region stand to benefit.
The Philippines has a longstanding military alliance with the US. The Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, reached during Benigno Aquino administration, allowed Washington to rotate ships, aircraft and personnel through five Philippines bases, an arrangement seen as crucial to projecting US military power on China’s doorstep.
In the meantime, the Philippines faced conflict with Beijing over the South China Sea, notably after the international Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in July against Beijing’s claim over almost the whole sea. Manila has run out of potential resolutions to the territorial dispute, and Beijing is standing firm on its claim.
China, which has accused the Philippines of being “used” by the United States to create trouble in the region, insists the South China Sea disputes can only be resolved bilaterally between claimants and without interference from outsiders. As such, Beijing would like to see the Philippines move out of Washington’s shadow.
Maintaining a distance from the US and shifting closer to China and other Asian nations, notably those in Southeast Asia, should be regarded as a smart step for the Philippines.
President Duterte has worked to establish a good rapport with Asian leaders on his recent visits to Laos, Indonesia, Brunei and now China, according to Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez. His successful meetings with China’s President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Kequiang have led to greater confidence in the future economic relationship of the two countries, he said. Duterte’s visit produced agreements for investment worth $13.5 billion, which will translate to the creation of an estimated 2 million jobs in the next five years.