Could US troops move from Okinawa to Taiwan?

SATURDAY, JANUARY 28, 2017
Could US troops move from Okinawa to Taiwan?

John Bolton, a former US ambassador to the United Nations recently contributed a commentary to The Wall Street Journal, calling for a closer American military relationship with Taiwan to help counter a “belligerent” China.

In the commentary published on last Tuesday, Bolton, who was once said to be a prospect for deputy secretary of state, recommended an increase in US military sales to Taiwan and the relocation of American military personnel and assets to the island. During the Cold War, the United States set up the Taiwan Defence Command in Taipei and stationed the Military Assistance Advisory Group in Taiwan. He also suggested removal of part of the American forces in Okinawa and redeploying them to Taiwan. 
“Washington might also help ease tensions with Tokyo by redeploying at least some US forces from Okinawa, a festering problem in the US-Japan relationship,” he wrote.
According to Bolton, Taiwan’s location, closer to the East Asian mainland and the contested South China Sea than either Okinawa or Guam, would additionally give US forces “greater flexibility for rapid deployment throughout the region should the need arise”. 
In recent years, American and Chinese naval vessels have shadowed each other in the South China Sea amid ramped-up assertiveness by Beijing, including the establishment of military outposts on reclaimed islets in the strategic waterway.
Of course, Bolton does not want to approximate Douglas MacArthur’s image of Taiwan as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”, or renegotiate a mutual defence treaty with Taipei. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 is expansive enough to encompass a limited military relationship, making new legislative authority unnecessary. The act provides the legal basis for the unofficial relationship with Taipei and enshrines the US commitment to assist Taiwan in maintaining its defensive capability. 
Legal and security experts say neither US nor international law prevents President Donald Trump from stationing US troops and military assets in Taiwan.
Bolton, a close adviser to Trump, wants to help Japan and its prefecture of Okinawa – where the bulk of US forces are stationed – and make Taiwan a link in Washington’s containment of the People’s Republic of China.
Resentment against the American presence has been on the rise in Okinawa, driven by concerns over crime and by an unpopular plan to build a new Marine Corps airfield in the northern part of the island. With a sliver of Japan’s total landmass, Okinawa is home to about half of the American soldiers and sailors stationed in the Land of the Rising Sun, whereas about three quarters of the acreage in Okinawa are taken up by US bases. The bases are, in effect, US territory.
Takeshi Onaga, governor of Okinawa, has been seeking to forge a broad political coalition to reduce the United States’ presence. But he is opposed by the national government in Tokyo, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, an ultra-conservative who has been working to strengthen ties with Washington. Abe argues that any perceived weakening of the alliance would only embolden Japan’s regional rival, China. Onaga hails from the same political party as Abe, the Liberal Democratic Party, but broke with it over the base issue. 
What does Taiwan receive from the deal Bolton has proposed? First and foremost, Taiwan will receive Beijing’s ire if the deal goes through.
China will consider it provocative, perhaps prompting its long threatened attack on Taiwan while the United States could not back Taiwan’s security even if American forces were stationed there. There is no guarantee that Uncle Sam will come to Taiwan’s rescue. And he never will.
Another gift Taiwan will get is its being relegated as Washington’s bargaining chip in negotiations between the United States and China on Trump’s “one-China” policy. Beijing is against any negotiations over that agenda, but Trump insists that it be negotiated. In an interview, he raised the prospect of using Taiwan as a bargaining chip in Sino-US relations. Asked if he supported the policy, Trump said: “Everything is under negotiation, including ‘one China’.”