Trump’s foreign policy is dividing Europe

Europe is also divided over whether to lift sanctions against Russia, which Trump hinted he backed, with stances ranging from opposition to active support.
In a news conference on February 14, Hungarian Foreign and Trade Minister Peter Szijjarto expressed understanding of Trump’s executive order restricting the entry of citizens from seven Muslim-majority nations, saying Trump has the right to make decisions aimed at improving the safety of the American people. Szijjarto also said the migration of huge numbers of people across the globe brings the threat of terrorism to many parts of the world and is a dangerous trend. Poland expressed similar understanding for US immigration policy.
In contrast, Germany questions the new US border policies, arguing that barring travellers from specific regions or religions is unjustified, even if intended as a counter-terrorism measure. While Germany proactively accepted refugees from the Middle East and elsewhere in 2015, Hungary and Poland refused to accept quotas. The European Union thus failed to adopt a unified policy on refugees, and disarray has now also surfaced over the US immigration policy.
The threat from Russia
Poland and the three Baltic States are the countries watching the new US administration’s policy vis-a-vis Russia with the strongest sense of concern. These European countries have the historical experience of suffering occupation and oppressive rule at the hands of the Communist Soviet Union. Estonia and Latvia, above all, are increasingly anxious because they face conditions similar to those that precipitated Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, including having large numbers of ethnic Russian residents.
These former Soviet-bloc nations rely on the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation for their security – and above all on the military presence of the United States. But Trump has described Nato as “obsolete” and signified a desire to build a rapport with the Kremlin. During a council meeting of Nato defence ministers held in Brussels on February 15, US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis warned other member nations that failure to increase their defence spending would impel the United States to “moderate” its commitment to Nato.
In response to Russia’s intervention in Ukrainian affairs, Nato decided at its 2014 summit meeting to set the target of raising the percentage of each member’s defence spending to at least 2 per cent of its gross domestic product. Poland and Estonia have already achieved the target, but the comparative ratio of Germany, the largest economic power in Europe, stands at 1.2 per cent. Differences thus persist in Europe over the degree to which Russia should be perceived as a security threat.
Seventeen influential political leaders from mainly Eastern European nations sent a letter to Trump in January, calling for “continued sanctions against Russia”. The administration of German Chancellor Angela Merkel remains firmly resolved to maintain sanctions, but opinions in favour of lifting the sanctions are smouldering within the Christian Social Union and the Social Democratic Party of Germany, both coalition partners of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union. Italy, Austria and Hungary are among the countries that proactively support lifting sanctions.
A US-Russia deal could be a nightmare for Poland and several other European countries. In French presidential and German general elections, both set for this year, a right-wing candidate and an openly pro-Russia party are anticipated to make great gains. Forces that have gained strength in the aftermath of Trump’s inauguration might boost those in Europe who favour lifting the sanctions. Will the EU, where division over the European debt and migrant crisis has deepened, be able to maintain unity as it faces new pressures from outside?