Prayut prepares for a tricky Washington trip

It’s to be assumed that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his advisers are taking full advantage of the delay in his planned visit to Washington. The extra time will let them better assess US President Donald Trump, whose character and administration have confounded observers since the day he took office.
It no doubt came as a great relief for the ruling junta and military-led government that Trump has not once spoken out about the suppression of democracy here or Thailand’s poor reputation regarding human rights. Of course, that lack of criticism thus far doesn’t necessarily mean Thailand can expect any fresh benefits from its relationship with the US.
The Thai government interpreted Trump’s phone call to Prayut in April as a tacit blessing of his military rule, which had so irked the Obama administration. The invitation to Washington was regarded as a 
policy shift, an indicator that Washington no longer minds the abandonment of electoral democracy here. A general who topples a civilian government and seizes the premier’s post can now expect a warm handshake from the US 
president. Bilateral relations under the Trump administration are to be based on economic and strategic interests, not piddling matters such as democracy, rights and freedoms.
If that much seems clear to the junta, there can be nothing clear about Trump’s foreign policy. Debate is currently raging as to whether the president’s initial forays overseas have signalled American disinterest in playing a leading role in international affairs. His ambition to “make America great again” has had an inward focus from the start. Trump wants to pump up the domestic economy and is more interested in correcting foreign trade imbalances than keeping other nations on the democratic track. For its part, Thailand will need to appease him regarding intellectual property rights, our trade surplus and our investment barriers. Trump pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which promised to become a huge trading bloc, because he wants to negotiate bilateral deals with individual countries.     
What the junta can also count on from Trump’s America is a continuing strong military presence in the Asia-Pacific region. That should be good news, but it also forces Thailand to prioritise its links between the US and China, to which our generals have drawn closer.
Thailand is a US treaty ally, and the Pentagon has consistently wanted the Thai military on board amid occasional rising strategic threats in the region. What Washington currently perceives as threats, however – North Korea’s nukes and Beijing’s aggression in the South China Sea – can only add to Thai discomfort. Even if the antagonists don’t come to blows, the US has made it clear that its treaty allies should be helping it in any showdown over marine territory or missile tests.
The junta must also consider where it’s buying its military hardware. Thailand has purchased tanks, personnel carriers and submarines from China. Trump has the same gear for sale. Prayut is making a shopping list ahead of his trip to the White House, which so far includes more Black Hawk helicopters for the Army. It’s not like Thailand has a lot of money left to spend at the moment, however.
Personal gestures aside, Prayut’s visit to Washington is not as 
important as figuring out how Thailand can best benefit from its relationship with the US.