
Last Friday North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile that appeared capable of reaching the West Coast of the United States. As expected, the test raised tensions and worries around the world.
Western experts pointed to the mock warhead on the missile and how it shattered into pieces after it re-entered the earth’s atmosphere. Even if it is far from perfect, all weapons systems are a work in progress. It will be only a matter of time before Pyongyang fixes this problem.
But the bigger question is where is North Korea going with all of this? Trump’s response was typical of him – high on rhetoric and low on substance. “We’ll handle North Korea. We’re going to be able to handle them,” he was quoted as saying in remarks that are far from reassuring.
To make matters worse, it appeared that both sides prefer sabre-rattling instead of allowing diplomacy to work. A little indiscretion could quickly lead to a point of no return.
It is easy to demonise the North Korean regime for its oppressive rule. But in a world where nations are supposed to deal with one another as equals, the US needs to evaluate its own behaviour and see North Korea’s perspective. Pyongyang feels vulnerable and believes the only way it can survive is to develop nuclear missiles durable enough to reach US soil.
The track record of Western countries like the US towards authoritarian regimes that abandoned nuclear projects, such as Libya, suggests they cannot be trusted. Mu’ammar Gadhafi was ousted by the very people who praised him for ceding his nuclear weapons.
Trump has come down hard on China, accusing Beijing of not doing enough to pressure North Korea. He called for tougher sanctions. But history has shown that authoritarian regimes don’t care about the wellbeing of their people, and it is always the ordinary citizens who pay the heaviest price. Moreover, Beijing is not going to go the extra mile for the sake of the US or the United Nations. A North Korea that comes under America’s sphere of influence via South Korea is not in China’s interests. Hence Beijing will prefer the status quo.
If Pyongyang is as irrational as the American administration is portraying it to be, there is no need to negotiate. The problem with the US approach is its refusal to swallow the bitter pill of taking North Korean demands seriously and making concessions for the sake of peace. How about suspending joint military exercises with Japan and South Korea in exchange for the North halting its missile tests? Shouldn’t diplomacy be given more time to succeed?
Other nations should in the meantime make their voices heard in Pyongyang. No one wants to see a nuclear North Korea. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region need to be assured it will not suffer a nuclear war.
An upcoming Asean Regional Forum could be a starting point in terms of exchanging ideas and letting Pyongyang that its nuclear weapons ambitions cannot be tolerated. The North’s foreign minister attended a Forum summit in Bangkok a decade ago, in what was hailed as a major diplomatic breakthrough for the Chuan Leekpai government.
Today, though, amid all the talk of aggression, the prospects seem dim for enjoying a respite while other options are explored.