Korea talks will be acid tests

On April 27, the world will be watching as the leaders of the two Koreas meet in the demilitarised zone separating their countries. South Korea’s Moon Jae-in and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un even want their summit broadcast live, though cynics question Kim’s motives for doing so. Other protocol details were ironed out at a meeting of 12 officials last Wednesday in the truce village of Panmunjom.
Technically, the two Koreas are still at war, since their 1950-53 conflict produced neither surrender nor victor. Thailand, despite having diplomatic relations with the North, is part of the United Nations-led coalition arrayed against Pyongyang.
To see a peace treaty formally replace the existing armistice would be a modern marvel. But, because events are moving so fast, it is difficult to define normalcy in this situation. Just four months ago there was talk of war amid evidence that the North could reach the mainland United States with an armed missile.
Diplomacy rarely moves so speedily, especially in Asia, especially on the Korean Peninsula, frozen in stalemate for nearly 70 years. Mistrust remains deep and strategic divisions are as wide as ever. Observers are plentiful who say that the North and South coming together to discuss peace is too good to be true. But Moon has spent much of his political career thinking about how to deal with the North. In that respect, he is certainly better prepared than US President Donald Trump. Even so, he will be under intense domestic scrutiny to earn something far more tangible from Kim than vague pledges. Any agreement on peace will have to be attached to a verifiable process for denuclearisation.
Another concern, always a concern, is Trump’s participation, when the time comes for him to meet Kim. He is the wild card, being so woefully unschooled in international relations. It is highly possible that Trump could end up making concessions without realising what he’s giving away. Thus far, he has allowed Kim to set the pace and direction in this daunting diplomatic venture and he could very well be walking into a trap. The fact that Kim is getting a one-on-one meeting with an American president is already a victory for Pyongyang.
Trump’s comments on Korea have been quirky. He has gone as far as to suggest that the US needs a demilitarised zone of its own, along the border with Mexico. Given such absurdities, who know what he will say when he meets Kim if he veers from the script prepared by his aides? 
Discussing peace is always preferable to beating war drums, which had been heard repeatedly as recently as four months ago. But the Koreas summit and the Kim-Trump meeting will be acid tests to determine whether Pyongyang is serious about curbing its militarism and joining the community of nations. Moon and Trump should not be eager to strike deals that cede too much. At the same time, they should not permit Kim to engage in a long, drawn-out series of negotiations that produce nothing more than photo opportunities.
It’s a play book he’s consulted before, raising the prospect of peace and then reversing course and dashing hopes, all the while advancing his weapons programme.