North Korea must quit its nuclear weapons quickly

TUESDAY, JUNE 05, 2018
North Korea must quit its nuclear weapons quickly

Negotiations between the United States and North Korea to prepare for their historic summit are entering the final stretch after a rollercoaster ride that once went to a short-lived cancellation.

US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that his June 12 meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore would go ahead. This news came after senior North Korean official Kim Yong-chol hand-delivered a letter from Kim Jong-un to the president.
Trump said Singapore would be “a get-to-know-you kind of situation” and the beginning of a “process”.
This indicates that although Trump will negotiate with Kim for a complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of the North Korean nuclear programmes, he does not expect quick and complete results.
It forewarns again that the road to denuclearisation of North Korea will never be smooth.
The most important thing to do now is to work out details of a way to eliminate the nuclear arsenal in the North. Both sides need to focus on what steps the North will take in the early stage of denuclearisation and what the US will offer in return.
News media speculate that the US demands it take out nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles from the North, while the North keeps to the position that the US should offer concrete compensation, such as easing or lifting sanctions and guaranteeing the security of its regime.
As for the approach to denuclearisation, Washington wants a quick all-in-one approach, while Pyongyang wants a phased one. The quicker the denuclearisation, the better. If it takes many stages and a long time, it will be hard to achieve.
Against this backdrop, Trump’s mention of a declaration of an end to the Korean War attracts attention.
A deal to declare the termination of the war is worth being pushed for as a transitional way to guarantee the North Korean regime at the initial stage of denuclearisation. It is not only non-binding but also politically less burdensome than a peace treaty or the establishment of diplomatic relations which require ratification from the Congress. A promise not to invade North Korea will serve as security assurance until a peace regime is established. 
If negotiations on the declaration progress well, the US and the North are likely to consider an option of South Korean president Moon Jae-in signing it after the Trump-Kim summit.
Even as officials from Washington and Pyongyang tried to bridge their differences over the summit agenda, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned after meeting Kim Yong-chol in New York that the North Korean regime will need to show “bold leadership”.
This implies that the two countries still have a gap to fill.
If the North wants its regime to be guaranteed through ratification, it will have to assure Congress with bold early measures. In this light, letting the US take out its nuclear warheads is a necessary condition to earn a Congress-assured guarantee of the North Korean regime.
In the end, the key to denuclearisation is Kim Jong-un’s firm determination. If he is sincere, he will take related actions as quickly as possible. If not, he will only raise suspicions of trying to drag things on while seeking as much compensation as possible.

Sincerity
He still seems to dither. When he met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently, he said he wanted a phased denuclearisation.
Though Kim kept a low profile after being taken aback by Trump’s cancellation of the summit, he still shows a stance that it is difficult to back down on his terms of denuclearisation. Even if Kim delivered his personal letter apparently on his commitment to denuclearise the North, the US cannot but question his sincerity. 
Pyongyang has a track record of breaking its promises in the implementation phase after reaching agreements. The success of the summit will depend on its faithful implementation of agreements.
If Kim Jong-un wants to be assured of his regime, he must first make a big decision to dismantle nuclear programmes in the North completely and quickly.