House prices up in most markets

Using inflation-adjusted figures, a survey by the Global Property Guide reveals that house prices rose in 28 of 42 markets that have published housing statistics for the first quarter. Nominal house prices rose in 30 markets, and fell in only 12.

Inflation is particularly high in several countries with large annual increases in nominal house prices (including India, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa), so the two sets of figures are very different. 

The survey found that the US housing market had risen strongly. Increases in prices are accelerating. 

The S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally adjusted national home price index soared 8.31 per cent during the 12 months to the end of the first quarter of 2013, the biggest year-on-year increase since the first quarter of 2006. Over the same period, the US Federal Housing Finance Agency’s seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index rose by 4.93 per cent, its fourth quarter of year-on-year gains. US consumer confidence is at a five-year high, construction activity is picking up, and foreclosures and delinquency rates are falling.

More European housing markets are showing signs of recovery. In Turkey, house prices rose by 8.13 per cent in the first quarter, in sharp contrast with the 1.55 per cent year-on-year decline seen in the first quarter of 2012. 

In Denmark, house prices also increased by 7.01 per cent year on year, after annual growth rates of 6.84 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012 and 3.25 per cent in the third quarter and declines of 4.12 per cent in the second quarter and 5.52 per cent in the first quarter of last year. 

Other strong European housing markets included Norway, with prices rising by 4.75 per cent, Estonia (4.2 per cent), Poland (3.24 per cent), Sweden (3.11 per cent), and Switzerland (2.42 per cent).

Asian housing markets remain buoyant. In Hong Kong, prices surged 20.14 per cent year on year, far higher than the 2.11-per-cent annualised increase seen during the equivalent period of 2012. In Delhi, prices rose by 7.61 per cent, from year-on-year increases of 6.05 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012, 5.31 per cent in the third quarter, 6.23 per cent in the second and 24.41 per cent in the first. 

House prices also increased in Beijing (5.92 per cent), Greater Taipei (3.24 per cent), Makati central business district in Manila (2.34 per cent), Tokyo (2.12 per cent), Indonesia (2.04 per cent), and Thailand (1.48 per cent). Only Singapore saw its house prices decline, by 0.58 per cent.

Pacific housing markets’ upward momentum continues. New Zealand’s median house prices rose by 7.23 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, in sharp contrast with the year-on-year decline of 0.2 per cent in the same quarter of 2012. Australia’s housing market is also recovering, with prices in the country’s eight major cities rising by 0.11 per cent, its second consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth.

The Middle East’s housing markets remain strong. Dubai is the world’s best performer. Its house prices soared by 28.02 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, in sharp contrast with the 1.01-per-cent year-on-year decline seen during the same period last year. 

Likewise in Israel, the average price of owner-occupied dwellings rose by 6.34 per cent, after year-on-year increases of 4.12 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012 and 3.14 per cent in the third quarter, and declines of 0.46 per cent in the second quarter and 3.33 per cent in the first quarter of 2012.

All these figures are adjusted for inflation.