Copernicus reports August 2026 was 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, with fossil fuel emissions and a strengthening El Niño driving the heat
August 2026 tied July 2023 as the hottest month on record globally, averaging 16.96°C.
August 2026 was 1.65°C warmer globally than the pre-industrial average for the month.
Samantha Burgess from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said humanity had not experienced comparable global heat for at least 100,000 years.
Scientists identified human-caused warming as the main driver, with a strengthening El Niño adding heat.
Earth’s average surface air temperature reached 16.96°C in August 2026, matching the highest monthly level on record as human-caused climate change and a strengthening El Niño pushed temperatures higher.
August tied July 2023 as the hottest month across all calendar months, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The findings were released on September 10 in Copernicus’s August climate update.
The global average for August was 1.65°C above the estimated pre-industrial average for the month, using 1850–1900 as the reference period. It was the first month since November 2025 to exceed 1.5°C above that baseline. A monthly reading above 1.5°C does not, by itself, mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term warming limit has been exceeded.
Copernicus also recorded a joint monthly high for sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions, covering the oceans between 60° south and 60° north. The ocean finding applies to Copernicus’s ERA5 climate dataset. The agency noted that some other datasets did not show a record monthly average.
Globally, June–August 2026 tied 2024 as the warmest such three-month period on record. Western Europe experienced its hottest summer, according to the Copernicus temperature bulletin, while the United States also recorded its hottest summer.
Heat disrupts daily life
Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which implements C3S, said humanity had not experienced comparable global temperatures for at least 100,000 years.
Burgess described August as a remarkable month in the global climate record, showing how climate change was driving extremes in both the atmosphere and the oceans.
The world had reached a turning point, Burgess said, with climate impacts increasingly disrupting everyday life. Schools were closing, hospitals were being overwhelmed, roads were melting and railway tracks were buckling. Europe was beginning to recognise that it was not sufficiently adapted even to the climate it already faced.
Tens of thousands of excess deaths were reported during Europe’s summer heatwaves, alongside severe wildfires in France, Spain and the United Kingdom. North America faced intense heat domes, while smoke from Canadian wildfires spread across the north-eastern United States.
Human-caused climate change, driven by the continued burning of fossil fuels, remains the principal cause of the record heat. A strengthening El Niño in the Pacific is adding to that warming, with its temporary contribution estimated at around 0.1–0.2°C.
“Although El Niño is beginning to intensify the heat, the underlying driver remains the burning of fossil fuels by humans,” Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, was quoted as saying.
Otto warned that record-breaking months would continue for as long as humanity kept burning coal, oil and gas.
“The price the world pays for its addiction to fossil fuels is rising. As long as humanity continues burning them, extreme heat will keep breaking records, claiming millions of lives, disrupting healthcare and transport systems and driving up the cost of essentials,” Simon Stiell, the United Nations climate chief, said.
Scientists warn of further records
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the summer’s heatwaves, wildfires and floods as a warning of what lay ahead. He urged countries to strengthen their climate ambitions and limit both the scale and duration of any warming beyond 1.5°C.
The United Nations Environment Programme has also warned that deep emissions cuts are needed to limit an overshoot of 1.5°C and its consequences. Its Emissions Gap Report calls for faster and larger reductions to contain the risks and damage.
Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, said 2026 was very likely to overtake 2024 as the hottest year on record. The influence of El Niño could make 2027 hotter still, he added.
Hausfather said August matching or surpassing July, normally the warmest month globally, was a clear sign that human-caused climate change was accelerating.
