NOAA forecasts 75% chance of record El Niño in late 2026
NOAA’s El Niño forecast recalls 1997–98, while a study projects 451,000 extra heat deaths worldwide from June 2026 to February 2027
- The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a 75% chance of a record-strength El Niño during October–December 2026.
- The anticipated event is expected to surpass the powerful 1997–98 El Niño, which caused widespread destructive weather in North America.
- Scientists have identified similarities in developing climate conditions, such as trade winds and atmospheric patterns, between the current system and the 1997-98 event.
- NOAA's forecast pertains to the strength of the climate phenomenon itself, cautioning that it increases the likelihood of associated weather impacts but does not guarantee them in specific regions.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a 75% chance of record El Niño strength during October–December 2026. Its September 10 outlook raises the prospect of the 2026–27 event surpassing the powerful 1997–98 episode, which brought widespread destruction to parts of North America. The comparison extends to the developing climate system. Scientists had identified similarities in trade winds and atmospheric conditions, while an analysis published by AVISO+ also found parallels between the development of the two events.
The 1997–98 winter brought floods, deadly storms and unusual warmth
The winter of 1997–98 ranked as the second-warmest and seventh-wettest for the contiguous United States in records beginning in 1895, according to NOAA’s historical assessment. The season combined destructive storms with unusually mild conditions in many northern areas.
California, Florida and parts of the eastern United States endured repeated storms, with weeks of unsettled weather bringing flooding and landslides. Florida also suffered deadly tornadoes.
A storm system in January 1998 caused flooding across parts of the eastern United States and severe icing in the northeast and eastern Canada. NOAA recorded 56 deaths associated with the system, including fatalities from both flooding and the ice storm. Millions lost electricity.
Elsewhere in the northern United States, exceptional warmth disrupted the usual winter pattern. Some lakes that would normally freeze remained unfrozen.
NOAA’s record-strength forecast carries uncertainty over local impacts
NOAA’s September forecast put the probability of an El Niño stronger than previous events recorded since 1950 at 75% for October–December. That probability concerns the strength of the climate phenomenon; it does not establish that damage or deaths will exceed those of earlier episodes.
The 2026–27 event has raised concerns about severe El Niño-related drought risks in some regions and heavy rain and flooding in others. Spring News described the anticipated event as a “super El Niño”, with potentially widespread consequences.
Signs of disruption had appeared by late summer, citing changing atmospheric pressure and unusually active Pacific monsoon winds. The report anticipated more severe weather extremes during the approaching Northern Hemisphere winter.
NOAA cautioned that a stronger El Niño increases the likelihood of associated weather impacts, without guaranteeing those outcomes in individual regions.
The 451,000-death projection concerns additional deaths from heat
A separate Climate Impact Lab analysis projects 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, compared with a normal year. The estimate concerns excess mortality associated with heat, rather than a combined death toll from floods, storms and other natural disasters.
The mortality figure is a modelled projection, not an observed total or an inevitable outcome. Climate Impact Lab researchers said targeted action could prevent tens of thousands of the projected deaths.
