Thai rice exports drop 17.5% in Jan 2026 as strong baht impacts market
Thailand's rice industry faces a challenging 2026 as January export volumes tumbled to 530,287 tons, pressured by an uncompetitive exchange rate and a surge in global production led by India.
- Thai rice exports fell by 17.5% in volume in January 2026 compared to the same month in the previous year, with export value also declining significantly.
- The primary cause for the drop is the strong Thai baht, valued at approximately 31 THB per USD, which makes Thai rice more expensive and uncompetitive on the global market.
- For every 1 THB the baht strengthens, the price of Thai rice increases by US$12–15 per ton, making it less attractive to buyers.
- The market is further impacted by increased global rice supply and aggressive price competition from rivals like India, Vietnam, and Pakistan.
Pol Lt Charoen Laothamatas, President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, revealed that Thai rice exports in January 2026 totalled 530,287 tons, a 17.5% decrease compared to 643,144 tons in the same period last year.
The export value stood at THB9.707 billion (a 30.7% decrease) or US$313 million (a 23.9% decrease), reflecting pressure from global market prices and intensifying competition.
The Thai Rice Exporters Association has set the 2026 export target at 7.03 million tons, an 11% decrease, with a projected value of THB130 billion or US$4 billion.
This target is the lowest in five years since 2021.
Furthermore, the situation will be reassessed in the second half of the year to determine if the export target needs adjustment.
The association expects the government to effectively manage the exchange rate, as Thailand's current rate is uncompetitive compared to rivals.
A competitive exchange rate should be at the level of 33–34 THB per 1 USD.
Currently, the Thai Baht is at approximately 31 THB per 1 USD, which is considerably strong.
In the short term, the improvement or decline of exports depends on the currency.
Therefore, regardless of the administration, the most important factor is maintaining a stable Baht to ensure competitiveness.
"For every 1 THB the Baht appreciates, Thai rice becomes US$12–15 more expensive per ton. Currently, the Baht is around 31 THB per 1 USD, which is quite strong; compared to the exchange rate during the same period in 2025, the price of rice has increased by US$40 per ton."
Meanwhile, global rice supply has risen, particularly from India, the world's leading producer and exporter.
India has achieved a record production level of 152 million tons per year, surpassing China’s previous record of 145–146 million tons.
Consequently, India is not only the largest producer but also the most influential exporter regarding global market benchmark prices.
Additionally, key competitors such as Vietnam and Pakistan have reported excellent harvests in the latest season.
This has resulted in a global supply that exceeds demand, leading to more aggressive price competition.
Regarding Thailand, while rice volume increased in 2025, the concern is that if exports cannot be accelerated, domestic paddy prices will face increasing problems.
Currently, Thai rice is losing its competitive edge.
Necessary actions include addressing rice variety issues to achieve higher yields and lower production costs.
Factors Affecting Thai Rice Exports
- Volatility of the Baht is affecting Thailand’s competitiveness.
- High global rice supply in both exporting and importing countries.
- US tax measures impacting Thailand and the world.
- Food security policies of various countries, focusing on domestic self-reliance and reducing imports, such as those of Indonesia and the Philippines.
- The return of the El Niño phenomenon, leading to drought and dry spells that may affect rice production.
Global Rice Situation and Market Competition
Based on USDA forecasts, global rice production for the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to be 541.28 million tons, a 0.07% decrease compared to 541.66 million tons in 2024/25.
This is due to expected production declines in key producing countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Pakistan, Cambodia, Brazil, and the USA.
Regarding global rice trade (exports-imports), the USDA forecasts a volume of approximately 62.76 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, a 5.1% increase compared to 59.7 million tons.
Almost all major exporting countries are expected to export more, including India, Pakistan, Cambodia, the USA, Myanmar, and Brazil.
Meanwhile, key importing countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Nigeria, Iraq, Malaysia, Senegal, the USA, Guinea, South Africa, and Iran are expected to increase their rice imports.
