ASEAN survey finds China overtaking US as strategic partner
ISEAS survey finds 52% of respondents would side with Beijing over Washington, though analysts say the shift reflects uncertainty, not a strategic break.
- A survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute found that 52% of Southeast Asian respondents would choose China over the US (48%) if forced to align with a superpower, reversing the previous year's results which favored the US.
- Analysts attribute this shift to China's growing economic influence and declining confidence in US leadership, citing geopolitical and trade uncertainty under the Trump administration as a key factor.
- Despite the reversal, experts caution that the narrow margin does not signify a "wholesale strategic pivot" to Beijing but rather reflects the region's response to current economic interdependence and US foreign policy.
- Support for China was strongest in countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, while the US remained the preferred partner in the Philippines, Myanmar, and Vietnam.
Most respondents in the latest ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey said Southeast Asia should choose China over the United States if forced to side with one superpower, though analysts said the result should not be mistaken for a clear-cut turn towards Beijing.
The survey found that 52% of respondents chose China, while 48% picked the US. That marked a reversal from last year, when 52.3% preferred Washington, and 47.7% chose Beijing.
Support for China was stronger in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, while the US remained the preferred option in the Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam.
ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute surveyed 2,008 respondents across 11 Southeast Asian countries, including people from the private sector, research institutions and policymaking circles. The poll was conducted from January 5 to February 20, beginning a few days after US President Donald Trump authorised the capture of Venezuela’s former leader, Nicolas Maduro, and said Washington would indefinitely control the sale of the South American country’s oil.
Analysts speaking at an online panel on Tuesday (April 7)said the shift appeared to reflect China’s closer economic ties with the region, as well as the geopolitical and trade uncertainty triggered by Trump’s recent moves. Even so, Ng Chee Khern, director of the institute, said the narrow margin should not be read as a “wholesale strategic pivot” to Beijing.
Scot Marciel, a former US diplomat and senior adviser at BowerGroupAsia, said: “I’m actually surprised the numbers didn’t swing more given the tariffs and other things the Trump administration has done.”
Still, Marciel said the findings should not be treated as a zero-sum contest between Washington and Beijing. “To the extent that the US takes actions that kind of push away, or maybe discourage Southeast Asians from working with us, the benefit of that does not necessarily accrue to China,” he said. “Oftentimes, they’re going to work more with each other. They’re going to work more with Japan, Korea, India, Australia, and Europe.”
Wang Zichen, deputy secretary general of the Centre for China and Globalisation, also urged caution in reading the results. “I do not think it means Southeast Asia has somehow ‘chosen’ China,” he said. “It also means that when the region is pushed into some sort of uncomfortable binary, China is no longer on the losing side.”
Wang said the findings suggested Southeast Asians were becoming more aware of economic interdependence and geographical proximity, adding that “their future is not thinkable without China”.
The survey, now in its eighth edition, found that US leadership under Trump was the biggest concern among respondents, followed by global scam operations and aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea.
Marciel said that the outcome was unsurprising, pointing to what he described as the “dramatic change” in US foreign policy during Trump’s second term. “All that has injected a lot of uncertainty and economic turmoil in the region … [The findings] show a lack of confidence, or declining confidence in the US.”
Since Trump returned to the White House, the US has rolled out various tariffs, prompting Southeast Asian governments and others to enter talks with Washington to renegotiate trade terms.
Saya Kiba, an associate professor at Kobe City University of Foreign Studies, said US leadership in the region had already been visibly weak for years, including during former president Joe Biden’s time in office, citing his absence from several ASEAN summits. “It was more of a lack of presence before, but now it’s more of uncertainty … Now it’s considered a geopolitical concern.”
South China Morning Post
