Japan updates probability of Nankai Trough megaquake to as high as 90%
Japan’s earthquake panel has revised the 30-year probability of a Nankai Trough megaquake to 60–90%, warning the risk remains imminent and preparedness vital.
A Japanese government panel has updated its assessment of the likelihood of a massive earthquake striking the Nankai Trough off the country’s Pacific coast, setting the probability within the next 30 years at roughly 60 to 90 %, or higher.
The figure, announced Friday by the national earthquake investigation committee, reflects a revised calculation method that factors in data errors and prediction uncertainties. Officials stressed the change does not imply that seismic risk has increased.
Earlier this year, the panel had placed the probability at about 80 %.
“The reality remains that a major quake could occur at any time. Strengthening disaster preparedness must continue,” said panel chief Naoshi Hirata, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
The Nankai Trough, a deep ocean trench along Japan’s Pacific coastline, is known for generating massive tremors every 100 to 150 years. The last confirmed event was the 1946 Nankai quake, which registered an estimated magnitude of 8.0.
Xinhua
