Thailand to have 23rd-biggest economy by 2050: HSBC
Thailand is predicted to become the world's 23rd-largest economy in 2050, being one of several emerging economies that will break into the top 30 in that time scale, according to HSBCs "The World in 2050" report.
The Kingdom’s gross domestic product is expected to more than quadruple from US$187 billion (about Bt6 trillion) in 2010 to $856 billion four decades from now.
Among Asean countries, six of the bloc’s 10 current members are expected to see their economic rankings among the top 50.
Aside from Thailand and the Philippines, which is predicted rise to 16th with GDP of $1.69 trillion in 2050 from $112 billion in 2010, the others are Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore. With GDPs of $1.05 trillion, $1.16 trillion, $451 billion and $441 billion in 2050, these four countries are expected to be ranked 17th, 21st, 41st and 42nd, respectively.
The report forecasts that 19 of the top 30 economies will be countries that are currently "emerging", and that China and India will power global growth over the next four decades, while countries as varied as Nigeria, Peru and the Philippines will also play a significant part.
The rankings are based on an economy’s current level of development and the factors that will determine whether it has the potential to catch up with more-developed nations. These fundamentals include current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change.
In completing the report, HSBC assumes that policy-makers will continue to make progress in addressing economic flaws and that the countries can avoid wars and remain open to global trade and capital.
The report’s prediction that the Philippines will become the world’s 16th-largest economy implies a rise of 27 places from today’s ranking, while Peru could sustain average growth of 5.5 per cent for four decades and jump 20 places to 26th.
The report concluded that the West is not getting poorer, but high levels of income per capita and weak demographics will limit growth. It is the small-population, ageing economies in Europe that are the big relative losers, seeing the biggest moves down the HSBC table.
The world will also face a massive demographic change over the next four decades. In 2050, there will be almost as many people in Nigeria as in the United States, Ethiopia will have twice as many people as projected in the US or Germany,and the population of many other African countries will double. Pakistan will have the sixth-largest population in the world.It already does
Even if some of these countries remain relatively poor on a per capita basis, they could see a dramatic increase in the size of their economies thanks to population growth, the report states, citing Pakistan as an example of a country breaking into the top 30 on that basis.
By contrast, the Japanese working population looks set to contract by 37 per cent, and Russia’s GDP by 31 per cent.
The euro zone faces similar problems, with working-population declines of 29 per cent in Germany, 24 per cent in Portugal, 23 per cent in Italy and 11 per cent in Spain, adding a whole new perspective to the current sovereign-debt crisis.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is predicted to jump 19 places to 40th because of its education system and rule of law, even though its population is forecast to fall to 36 million from the current 45 million.
Among the top 100, 26 nations are identified as fast-growth economies. They share a very low level of development but have made great progress in improving fundamentals. As they open themselves to the technology available elsewhere, they should enjoy many years of what HSBC calls "copy and paste" growth ahead.
Besides China, India, the Philippines and Malaysia, this category includes Bangladesh, the Central Asian countries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, Peru and Ecuador in Latin America, and Egypt and Jordan in the Middle East.
The growth category extends to 43 countries. It includes 11 Latin American nations such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, El Salvador, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic; Turkey, Romania and the Czech Republic in central and Eastern Europe; as well as war-ravaged Iraq and Yemen.
Africa will finally start to emerge from economic obscurity, the report states. Five of the fast-growth countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, and three are in the growth category.
