Emerging markets driving air-traffic growth, Airbus report says

The global fleet of passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats is set to more than double in the next 20 years to more than 40,000 planes as traffic is set to grow at 4.4 per cent per year, according to Airbus’ “Global Market Forecast 2017-2036”.
Over this period, increasing numbers of first-time flyers, rising disposable income spent on air travel, expanding tourism, industry liberalisation, new routes and evolving airline business models are driving a need for 34,170 passenger and 730 freighter aircraft worth a combined total of US$5.3 trillion (Bt180 trillion). 
More than 70 per cent of new units are single-aisle, with 60 per cent for growth and 40 per cent for replacement of less fuel-efficient aircraft.
A doubling in the commercial fleet over the next 20 years sees a need for 530,000 new pilots and 550,000 new maintenance engineers. In response, Airbus has expanded its global network of training locations from five to 16 in the space of three years.
Air-traffic growth is highest in emerging markets such as China, India, the rest of Asia and Latin America and almost double the forecast 3.2-per-cent annual growth in mature markets such as North America and Western Europe. 
Emerging markets, currently home to 6.4 billion of the world’s 7.4-billion population, will account for nearly 50 per cent of the world’s private consumption by 2036, the report says.
“Air travel is remarkably resilient to external shocks and doubles every 15 years,” said John Leahy, chief operating officer for customers at Airbus Commercial Aircraft. 
“Asia-Pacific continues to be an engine for growth, with domestic China to become the world’s largest market. Disposable incomes are growing, and in emerging economies the number of people taking a flight will nearly triple between now and 2036.”
Over the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific region is set to take 41 per cent of new deliveries, followed by Europe with 20 per cent and North America at 16 per cent. Middle-class numbers will almost double to nearly 5 billion as wealth creation makes aviation even more accessible, particularly in emerging economies, where spending on air-travel services is set to double.
In the twin-aisle segment, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 10,100 aircraft valued at $2.9 trillion.
In the single-aisle segment, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 24,810 aircraft valued at $2.4 trillion.