Marketwatch

Foreign investors have sold US$860 million worth of Asean equities month-to-date but Vietnamese, Philippine and Indonesian stocks have largely been unaffected by the sell-off.
Year-to-date, foreign investors were net buyers in Indonesia ($658 million), the Philippines ($489 million), and Vietnam ($186m). On the other hand, they were the sellers of Thai and Malysian shares – $266 million and $323 million respectively, since the beginning of this year. 
The massive inflows of capital in January cooled down in February and outflows were seen in early March. We believe the January inflows were caused by portfolio adjustments in the wake of the US Fed signalling a pause in rate hikes, a positive factor for emerging markets. 
Investors have been more selective as we noticed that countries still in net-buy position had shown superior growth. 
DBS forecast a 6.6 per cent GDP growth for Vietnam this year, 6.5 per cent for Philippines and 5.2 per cent for Indonesia.
At the same time, economic growth in Malaysia is estimated at 4.5 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent for Thailand. Apparently, foreign investors have turned to countries posting superior growth, given the economic slowdown in most parts of the world. 
While we expect the market to remain sluggish in the near term, we see a dash of optimism for Thai stocks with the MSCI's inclusion of Non-Voting Depositary Receipts into its emerging markers index by the end of this month.

Thanawat Patchimkul
Head of Research
DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand)

US signals, data to show the way 
The US Fed is expected to signal a hold on funds rate for the first half of this year and will likely keep the current level of 2.25-2.50 per cent at its meeting tomorrow and Wednesday, the second of this year, given the risks to US economic growth, which may slow with low inflation this year. 
At the same time, the Fed’s QT programme will be clearer soon.
We expect the US economy to show signs of a slowdown in the first quarter as the US-China trade war has yet to ease.
Earlier, the Fed cut its forecast for this year’s economic growth from 2.5 per cent to 2.3 per cent as US price pressure is likely to stay low. The US consumer price index (CPI) in February increased 1.5 per cent year on year, below market expectation of 1.6 per cent.
The US core CPI in February, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.1 per cent year on year, lower than the market expectation of 2.2 per cent. 
It is now possible for the Fed to revise down its estimated rate hikes from two to one this year and in such case, the US dollar may not appreciate further.
A clearer picture on Brexit is also expected this week, which could lead to a rebound of the euro. Given the expectations, forฌeign capital may return to stocks in emerging markets again. 
Saravut Tachochavalit
Senior Vice President/Research
RHB Securities (Thailand)